Preliminary probabilistic prediction of ice/snow accretion on stay cables based on meteorological variables

Joan Hee Roldsgaard, A. Kiremidjian, Christos T. Georgakis, Michael Havbro Faber

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Abstract

The scope of the present paper is to present a framework for assessment of the probability of occurrence of ice/snow accretion on bridge cables. The framework utilizes Bayesian Probabilistic Networks and the methodology is illustrated with an example of the cable-stayed Øresund Bridge. The case study focuses on the ice/snow accretion due to the in-cloud icing or precipitation icing mechanisms and includes probabilistic assessments of the meteorological variables influencing the ice/snow accretion on the stay cables. Different probability distribution functions are utilized for the representation of the meteorological variables and evaluated both by goodness-of-fit test and qualitatively. Conditional probability curves are developed
to predict the amount of ice accretion given a set of meteorological conditions using the Gaussian Kernel Smoothing method. The fitted probability distribution functions for the meteorological variables and the conditional ice accretion curves are implemented in a Bayesian Probabilistic Network and the annual average number of ice/snow accretion occurrences is estimated.
Original languageEnglish
Publication date2013
Publication statusPublished - 2013
Event11th international conference on Structural Safety & Reliability Conference - New York, United States
Duration: 16 Jun 201320 Jun 2013
Conference number: 11
http://icossar2013.org/

Conference

Conference11th international conference on Structural Safety & Reliability Conference
Number11
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityNew York
Period16/06/201320/06/2013
Internet address

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