Abstract
This study presents DTU Wind’s assessment of three potential sites for development of offshore wind energy in Ukraine. The assessment is made according to DTU Wind’s methodology for preliminary analysis of offshore wind farm projects and applying global databases and industry-standard tools to provide consistent insights and comparisons of potential offshore sites.
The Danish Energy Agency (DEA) has requested DTU Wind to undertake a pre-feasibility study within the maritime zone of the Republic of Ukraine, from the Black Sea to the Crimea peninsula and to the Sea of Azov areas. The study includes a preliminary analysis of wind resources, the identification of most suitable locations for offshore wind farms, the energy production simulation for three hypothetical offshore wind farms, and the estimation of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE).
DTU Wind worked collaboratively with representatives of the World Bank to identify potential constraints and important issues for consideration regarding the development of offshore wind energy in Ukraine. Additional input opportunities occurred during an online meeting organised by DEA with several local stakeholders.
The wind resources as well as digital maps of orography and roughness were obtained from the Global Wind Atlas (GWA). The most relevant offshore wind climate parameters used in the study can be found in chapter 2.
DTU Wind performed a geospatial assessment of offshore areas within the EEZ of Ukraine (owing to the lack of a maritime spatial plan for Ukraine), and the areas identified in this study will eventually need to be confirmed as available for the development of offshore wind energy projects.
Several site-specific constraints were considered as exclusion or restriction zones. The databases used for the geospatial analysis, described in chapter 3, are available and may be used in the future for enhancing the current study, in case that new data or different constraints become available. Two large areas off the coast of Ukraine have been indicated for development of offshore wind projects, one area of approximately 30.000 km2 with shallow water depths suitable for bottom-fixed foundation technology and another area of approximately 20.000 km2 with water depth equal or greater than 60 m suitable for development of offshore wind projects with floating wind turbines.
Three hypothetical offshore wind farms were modelled using WAsP, the industry-standard software for wind resource assessment and wind farm planning. Two sites are in shallow waters, suitable for bottom-fixed foundations. Another site is in relatively deeper waters, where floating foundations might be needed. Wind data from Global Wind Atlas were used due to the lack of local measurements. The layouts were defined using best practices to minimise wake losses. Taking all losses into account, the preliminary estimations indicate capacity factors of 39%, 36.9%, and 33.2% for Site 2, Site 1, and Site 3, respectively.
The range of LCOE for the hypothetical offshore wind projects in Ukraine have been estimated based on several simplifying assumptions and are subject to Ukraine-specific data limitations. The actual cost for offshore wind in Ukraine will depend on the ability to secure an affordable supply chain and workforce and grid connection. As such, for the LCOE calculation, certain external factors, particularly those stemming from the ongoing geopolitical situation, have not been explicitly incorporated into our analysis.
The initial capital and financing costs for pioneering projects in emerging markets, such as Ukraine, are anticipated to be higher, primarily due to the inherent risks of being the first of their kind. Lowering the financing costs can be accomplished through concessional financing sourced from international financial institutions. While the pre-feasibility study hasn’t delved into such scenarios, they can be explored in subsequent stages to assess potential options for project implementation
There are promising perspectives for the use of offshore wind in Ukraine, as pointed out here
although this report should be interpreted as guidance only due to variability in wind energy de-
ployment methods, along with the evolution of technology and changes in costs. This work may
be used for planning the next steps of the development of an offshore wind project in Ukraine
which might include measurement campaigns, environmental assessments, and a more de-
tailed conceptual design of an offshore wind farm.
The Danish Energy Agency (DEA) has requested DTU Wind to undertake a pre-feasibility study within the maritime zone of the Republic of Ukraine, from the Black Sea to the Crimea peninsula and to the Sea of Azov areas. The study includes a preliminary analysis of wind resources, the identification of most suitable locations for offshore wind farms, the energy production simulation for three hypothetical offshore wind farms, and the estimation of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE).
DTU Wind worked collaboratively with representatives of the World Bank to identify potential constraints and important issues for consideration regarding the development of offshore wind energy in Ukraine. Additional input opportunities occurred during an online meeting organised by DEA with several local stakeholders.
The wind resources as well as digital maps of orography and roughness were obtained from the Global Wind Atlas (GWA). The most relevant offshore wind climate parameters used in the study can be found in chapter 2.
DTU Wind performed a geospatial assessment of offshore areas within the EEZ of Ukraine (owing to the lack of a maritime spatial plan for Ukraine), and the areas identified in this study will eventually need to be confirmed as available for the development of offshore wind energy projects.
Several site-specific constraints were considered as exclusion or restriction zones. The databases used for the geospatial analysis, described in chapter 3, are available and may be used in the future for enhancing the current study, in case that new data or different constraints become available. Two large areas off the coast of Ukraine have been indicated for development of offshore wind projects, one area of approximately 30.000 km2 with shallow water depths suitable for bottom-fixed foundation technology and another area of approximately 20.000 km2 with water depth equal or greater than 60 m suitable for development of offshore wind projects with floating wind turbines.
Three hypothetical offshore wind farms were modelled using WAsP, the industry-standard software for wind resource assessment and wind farm planning. Two sites are in shallow waters, suitable for bottom-fixed foundations. Another site is in relatively deeper waters, where floating foundations might be needed. Wind data from Global Wind Atlas were used due to the lack of local measurements. The layouts were defined using best practices to minimise wake losses. Taking all losses into account, the preliminary estimations indicate capacity factors of 39%, 36.9%, and 33.2% for Site 2, Site 1, and Site 3, respectively.
The range of LCOE for the hypothetical offshore wind projects in Ukraine have been estimated based on several simplifying assumptions and are subject to Ukraine-specific data limitations. The actual cost for offshore wind in Ukraine will depend on the ability to secure an affordable supply chain and workforce and grid connection. As such, for the LCOE calculation, certain external factors, particularly those stemming from the ongoing geopolitical situation, have not been explicitly incorporated into our analysis.
The initial capital and financing costs for pioneering projects in emerging markets, such as Ukraine, are anticipated to be higher, primarily due to the inherent risks of being the first of their kind. Lowering the financing costs can be accomplished through concessional financing sourced from international financial institutions. While the pre-feasibility study hasn’t delved into such scenarios, they can be explored in subsequent stages to assess potential options for project implementation
There are promising perspectives for the use of offshore wind in Ukraine, as pointed out here
although this report should be interpreted as guidance only due to variability in wind energy de-
ployment methods, along with the evolution of technology and changes in costs. This work may
be used for planning the next steps of the development of an offshore wind project in Ukraine
which might include measurement campaigns, environmental assessments, and a more de-
tailed conceptual design of an offshore wind farm.
| Original language | English |
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| Place of Publication | Risø, Roskilde, Denmark |
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| Publisher | DTU Wind and Energy Systems |
| Number of pages | 42 |
| ISBN (Electronic) | 978-87-87335-82-9 |
| Publication status | Published - 2024 |
| Series | DTU Wind and Energy Systems E |
|---|---|
| Number | E-0254 |
