Predicting the price of solid oxide electrolysers (SOECs)

Solid oxide electrolyser cells (SOECs) can turn electricity and a suitable feedstock, such as water and/or carbon dioxide, into fuels at high efficiency. The technology can play a key role in a fossil fuel free society, by providing fuels for transportation and for balancing the electricity system. The technology is one of the most promising in its field because of low material costs, high power densities and before mentioned high efficiency.

SOECs are currently not widely commercially available, although demonstration plants and few niche applications have recently come into operation. This means that there is not a developed market for the technology yet and information about costs are not readily available. It is however very important that people who model the energy system or are in policy making positions have access to as accurate as possible information about the possible cost and performance of the technology in the future.

DTU Energy has participated several times in the past in predicting the development of price and performance of SOEC’s in different reports e.g. [1]. This paper is intended to collect and document in one place our prognostics, as well as, the data and assumptions that lay behind them.