Planning the transition to electric trucks: An optimization framework for line-haul logistics

The transition from heavy-duty diesel trucks (HDDTs) to heavy-duty electric trucks (HDETs) presents major challenges for logistics companies, particularly in line-haul networks with multiple terminals, diverse and long distances, and evolving public charging infrastructure over time. A key problem is determining the optimal timing for replacing HDDTs with specific HDET types and deploying the appropriate charging infrastructure at each terminal while managing costs, operational efficiency, and infrastructure availability. Existing research mainly focuses on urban fleet electrification, offering limited insights into phased HDET adoption in line-haul logistics. This study addresses this gap by developing a roadmap for HDET deployment in line-haul networks. We propose a scalable dynamic mixed-integer programming model that integrates fleet replacement and charging infrastructure decisions while accounting for time-dependent economic, environmental, and technological conditions. Using real data from a Danish logistics company, we evaluate different fleet electrification scenarios and conduct sensitivity analyses on financial and environmental impacts. Results show a cost-effective path to achieving 88 % fleet electrification by 2040, with a 9 % reduction in total cost of ownership (TCO) and a 55.95 % decrease in life-cycle CO₂ emissions compared to a diesel-only scenario. However, the speed of transition depends on external factors and investment capacity, which shape the need for targeted policy measures. These include subsidies for HDETs and charging infrastructure, expansion of public fast-charging networks, and incentives such as tax breaks or toll reductions for early adopters. These insights provide practical guidance for logistics companies and policymakers navigating the shift to sustainable freight transportation.