Performance of High-Resolution Numerical Weather Predictions with a Rapid Updating Cycle for Urban Runoff Forecasting

Jonas Wied Pedersen; Luca Vezzaro; Henrik Vedel; Henrik Madsen; Peter Steen Mikkelsen

Performance of High-Resolution Numerical Weather Predictions with a Rapid Updating Cycle for Urban Runoff Forecasting

Jonas Wied Pedersen, Luca Vezzaro, Henrik Vedel, Henrik Madsen, Peter Steen Mikkelsen

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Article in proceedings › Research › peer-review

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Abstract

Rainfall forecasts based on numerical weather predictions are a fairly new tool within the urban drainage community. That is despite the fact that they provide longer forecast horizons than radar-based forecasts, which could be valuable for integrated management of urban drainage-wastewater systems. High-resolution numerical weather predictions with a high updating frequency are here used as forcing in a runoff model, which provides flow forecasts up to 10 hours ahead. Evaluation is done in terms of exceedance of a flow threshold. Results show trustworthy predictions on horizons less than two hours. For longer horizons, the True Positives Rate and the Positive Predictive Value decrease to around 0.2 and 0.3, respectively

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling
Editors	G. Mannina
Place of Publication	Palermo, Italy
Publication date	2018
Pages	438-441
Publication status	Published - 2018
Event	11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling - Palermo, Italy Duration: 23 Sept 2018 → 26 Sept 2018

Conference

Conference	11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling
Country/Territory	Italy
City	Palermo
Period	23/09/2018 → 26/09/2018

Keywords

Numerical Weather Prediction
Urban runoff forecasting
Threshold exceedance evaluation

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Pedersen et al UDM2018 20180320Final published version, 567 KB

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@inproceedings{f86ea53433fb4764a4ebd6ff014edf71,

title = "Performance of High-Resolution Numerical Weather Predictions with a Rapid Updating Cycle for Urban Runoff Forecasting",

abstract = "Rainfall forecasts based on numerical weather predictions are a fairly new tool within the urban drainage community. That is despite the fact that they provide longer forecast horizons than radar-based forecasts, which could be valuable for integrated management of urban drainage-wastewater systems. High-resolution numerical weather predictions with a high updating frequency are here used as forcing in a runoff model, which provides flow forecasts up to 10 hours ahead. Evaluation is done in terms of exceedance of a flow threshold. Results show trustworthy predictions on horizons less than two hours. For longer horizons, the True Positives Rate and the Positive Predictive Value decrease to around 0.2 and 0.3, respectively",

keywords = "Numerical Weather Prediction, Urban runoff forecasting, Threshold exceedance evaluation",

author = "Pedersen, {Jonas Wied} and Luca Vezzaro and Henrik Vedel and Henrik Madsen and Mikkelsen, {Peter Steen}",

year = "2018",

language = "English",

pages = "438--441",

editor = "G. Mannina",

booktitle = "Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling",

note = "11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling ; Conference date: 23-09-2018 Through 26-09-2018",

}

Pedersen, JW , Vezzaro, L, Vedel, H, Madsen, H & Mikkelsen, PS 2018, Performance of High-Resolution Numerical Weather Predictions with a Rapid Updating Cycle for Urban Runoff Forecasting. in G Mannina (ed.), Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling. Palermo, Italy, pp. 438-441, 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling, Palermo, Italy, 23/09/2018.

Performance of High-Resolution Numerical Weather Predictions with a Rapid Updating Cycle for Urban Runoff Forecasting. / Pedersen, Jonas Wied ; Vezzaro, Luca; Vedel, Henrik et al.
Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling. ed. / G. Mannina. Palermo, Italy, 2018. p. 438-441.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Article in proceedings › Research › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Performance of High-Resolution Numerical Weather Predictions with a Rapid Updating Cycle for Urban Runoff Forecasting

AU - Pedersen, Jonas Wied

AU - Vezzaro, Luca

AU - Vedel, Henrik

AU - Madsen, Henrik

AU - Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - Rainfall forecasts based on numerical weather predictions are a fairly new tool within the urban drainage community. That is despite the fact that they provide longer forecast horizons than radar-based forecasts, which could be valuable for integrated management of urban drainage-wastewater systems. High-resolution numerical weather predictions with a high updating frequency are here used as forcing in a runoff model, which provides flow forecasts up to 10 hours ahead. Evaluation is done in terms of exceedance of a flow threshold. Results show trustworthy predictions on horizons less than two hours. For longer horizons, the True Positives Rate and the Positive Predictive Value decrease to around 0.2 and 0.3, respectively

AB - Rainfall forecasts based on numerical weather predictions are a fairly new tool within the urban drainage community. That is despite the fact that they provide longer forecast horizons than radar-based forecasts, which could be valuable for integrated management of urban drainage-wastewater systems. High-resolution numerical weather predictions with a high updating frequency are here used as forcing in a runoff model, which provides flow forecasts up to 10 hours ahead. Evaluation is done in terms of exceedance of a flow threshold. Results show trustworthy predictions on horizons less than two hours. For longer horizons, the True Positives Rate and the Positive Predictive Value decrease to around 0.2 and 0.3, respectively

KW - Numerical Weather Prediction

KW - Urban runoff forecasting

KW - Threshold exceedance evaluation

M3 - Article in proceedings

SP - 438

EP - 441

BT - Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling

A2 - Mannina, G.

CY - Palermo, Italy

T2 - 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling

Y2 - 23 September 2018 through 26 September 2018

ER -

Performance of High-Resolution Numerical Weather Predictions with a Rapid Updating Cycle for Urban Runoff Forecasting

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