Performance of High-Resolution Numerical Weather Predictions with a Rapid Updating Cycle for Urban Runoff Forecasting

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingArticle in proceedingsResearchpeer-review

40 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Rainfall forecasts based on numerical weather predictions are a fairly new tool within the urban drainage community. That is despite the fact that they provide longer forecast horizons than radar-based forecasts, which could be valuable for integrated management of urban drainage-wastewater systems. High-resolution numerical weather predictions with a high updating frequency are here used as forcing in a runoff model, which provides flow forecasts up to 10 hours ahead. Evaluation is done in terms of exceedance of a flow threshold. Results show trustworthy predictions on horizons less than two hours. For longer horizons, the True Positives Rate and the Positive Predictive Value decrease to around 0.2 and 0.3, respectively
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling
EditorsG. Mannina
Place of PublicationPalermo, Italy
Publication date2018
Pages438-441
Publication statusPublished - 2018
Event11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling - Palermo, Italy
Duration: 23 Sep 201826 Sep 2018

Conference

Conference11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling
CountryItaly
CityPalermo
Period23/09/201826/09/2018

Keywords

  • Numerical Weather Prediction
  • Urban runoff forecasting
  • Threshold exceedance evaluation

Cite this

Pedersen, J. W., Vezzaro, L., Vedel, H., Madsen, H., & Mikkelsen, P. S. (2018). Performance of High-Resolution Numerical Weather Predictions with a Rapid Updating Cycle for Urban Runoff Forecasting. In G. Mannina (Ed.), Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling (pp. 438-441). Palermo, Italy.
Pedersen, Jonas Wied ; Vezzaro, Luca ; Vedel, Henrik ; Madsen, Henrik ; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen. / Performance of High-Resolution Numerical Weather Predictions with a Rapid Updating Cycle for Urban Runoff Forecasting. Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling. editor / G. Mannina. Palermo, Italy, 2018. pp. 438-441
@inproceedings{f86ea53433fb4764a4ebd6ff014edf71,
title = "Performance of High-Resolution Numerical Weather Predictions with a Rapid Updating Cycle for Urban Runoff Forecasting",
abstract = "Rainfall forecasts based on numerical weather predictions are a fairly new tool within the urban drainage community. That is despite the fact that they provide longer forecast horizons than radar-based forecasts, which could be valuable for integrated management of urban drainage-wastewater systems. High-resolution numerical weather predictions with a high updating frequency are here used as forcing in a runoff model, which provides flow forecasts up to 10 hours ahead. Evaluation is done in terms of exceedance of a flow threshold. Results show trustworthy predictions on horizons less than two hours. For longer horizons, the True Positives Rate and the Positive Predictive Value decrease to around 0.2 and 0.3, respectively",
keywords = "Numerical Weather Prediction, Urban runoff forecasting, Threshold exceedance evaluation",
author = "Pedersen, {Jonas Wied} and Luca Vezzaro and Henrik Vedel and Henrik Madsen and Mikkelsen, {Peter Steen}",
year = "2018",
language = "English",
pages = "438--441",
editor = "G. Mannina",
booktitle = "Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling",

}

Pedersen, JW, Vezzaro, L, Vedel, H, Madsen, H & Mikkelsen, PS 2018, Performance of High-Resolution Numerical Weather Predictions with a Rapid Updating Cycle for Urban Runoff Forecasting. in G Mannina (ed.), Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling. Palermo, Italy, pp. 438-441, 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling, Palermo, Italy, 23/09/2018.

Performance of High-Resolution Numerical Weather Predictions with a Rapid Updating Cycle for Urban Runoff Forecasting. / Pedersen, Jonas Wied; Vezzaro, Luca; Vedel, Henrik; Madsen, Henrik; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen.

Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling. ed. / G. Mannina. Palermo, Italy, 2018. p. 438-441.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingArticle in proceedingsResearchpeer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Performance of High-Resolution Numerical Weather Predictions with a Rapid Updating Cycle for Urban Runoff Forecasting

AU - Pedersen, Jonas Wied

AU - Vezzaro, Luca

AU - Vedel, Henrik

AU - Madsen, Henrik

AU - Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - Rainfall forecasts based on numerical weather predictions are a fairly new tool within the urban drainage community. That is despite the fact that they provide longer forecast horizons than radar-based forecasts, which could be valuable for integrated management of urban drainage-wastewater systems. High-resolution numerical weather predictions with a high updating frequency are here used as forcing in a runoff model, which provides flow forecasts up to 10 hours ahead. Evaluation is done in terms of exceedance of a flow threshold. Results show trustworthy predictions on horizons less than two hours. For longer horizons, the True Positives Rate and the Positive Predictive Value decrease to around 0.2 and 0.3, respectively

AB - Rainfall forecasts based on numerical weather predictions are a fairly new tool within the urban drainage community. That is despite the fact that they provide longer forecast horizons than radar-based forecasts, which could be valuable for integrated management of urban drainage-wastewater systems. High-resolution numerical weather predictions with a high updating frequency are here used as forcing in a runoff model, which provides flow forecasts up to 10 hours ahead. Evaluation is done in terms of exceedance of a flow threshold. Results show trustworthy predictions on horizons less than two hours. For longer horizons, the True Positives Rate and the Positive Predictive Value decrease to around 0.2 and 0.3, respectively

KW - Numerical Weather Prediction

KW - Urban runoff forecasting

KW - Threshold exceedance evaluation

M3 - Article in proceedings

SP - 438

EP - 441

BT - Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling

A2 - Mannina, G.

CY - Palermo, Italy

ER -

Pedersen JW, Vezzaro L, Vedel H, Madsen H, Mikkelsen PS. Performance of High-Resolution Numerical Weather Predictions with a Rapid Updating Cycle for Urban Runoff Forecasting. In Mannina G, editor, Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling. Palermo, Italy. 2018. p. 438-441