Performance of High-Resolution Numerical Weather Predictions with a Rapid Updating Cycle for Urban Runoff Forecasting

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Abstract

Rainfall forecasts based on numerical weather predictions are a fairly new tool within the urban drainage community. That is despite the fact that they provide longer forecast horizons than radar-based forecasts, which could be valuable for integrated management of urban drainage-wastewater systems. High-resolution numerical weather predictions with a high updating frequency are here used as forcing in a runoff model, which provides flow forecasts up to 10 hours ahead. Evaluation is done in terms of exceedance of a flow threshold. Results show trustworthy predictions on horizons less than two hours. For longer horizons, the True Positives Rate and the Positive Predictive Value decrease to around 0.2 and 0.3, respectively
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling
EditorsG. Mannina
Place of PublicationPalermo, Italy
Publication date2018
Pages438-441
Publication statusPublished - 2018
Event11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling - Palermo, Italy
Duration: 23 Sep 201826 Sep 2018

Conference

Conference11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling
CountryItaly
CityPalermo
Period23/09/201826/09/2018

Keywords

  • Numerical Weather Prediction
  • Urban runoff forecasting
  • Threshold exceedance evaluation

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