Onlineforecast: An R package for adaptive and recursive forecasting

Peder Bacher, Hjörleifur G. Bergsteinsson, Linde Frölke, Mikkel L. Sørensen, Julian Lemos-Vinasco, Jon Liisberg, Jan Kloppenborg Møller, Henrik Aalborg Nielsen, Henrik Madsen

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Abstract

Systems that rely on forecasts to make decisions, e.g. control or energy trading systems, require frequent updates of the forecasts. Usually, the forecasts are updated whenever new observations become available, hence in an online setting. We present the R package onlineforecast that provides a generalized setup of data and models for online forecasting. It has functionality for time-adaptive fitting of dynamical and non-linear models. The setup is tailored to enable the effective use of forecasts as model inputs, e.g. numerical weather forecast. Users can create new models for their particular applications and run models in an operational setting. The package also allows users to easily replace parts of the setup, e.g. using new methods for estimation. The package comes with comprehensive vignettes and examples of online forecasting applications in energy systems, but can easily be applied for online forecasting in all fields.
Original languageEnglish
JournalR Journal
Volume15
Issue number1
Pages (from-to)173 - 194
ISSN2073-4859
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2023

Keywords

  • Recursive estimation
  • Adaptive
  • Non-linear transformation
  • Time series
  • Energy
  • Online Forecasting
  • Prediction
  • R

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