On the quality and value of probabilistic forecasts of wind generation

Pierre Pinson, Jeremie Juban, Georges Kariniotakis

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    Abstract

    While most of the current forecasting methods provide single estimates of future wind generation, some methods now allow one to have probabilistic predictions of wind power. They are often given in the form of prediction intervals or quantile forecasts. Such forecasts, since they include the uncertainty information, can be seen as optimal for the management or trading of wind generation. This paper explores the differences and relations between the quality (i.e. statistical performance) and the operational value of these forecasts. An application is presented on the use of probabilistic predictions for bidding in a European electricity market. The benefits of a probabilistic view of wind power forecasting are clearly demonstrated.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationInternational Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, 2006. PMAPS 2006.
    PublisherIEEE
    Publication date2006
    ISBN (Print)978-91-7178-585-5
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2006
    Event9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems - Stockholm, Sweden
    Duration: 11 Jun 200615 Jun 2006
    Conference number: 9

    Conference

    Conference9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems
    Number9
    CountrySweden
    CityStockholm
    Period11/06/200615/06/2006

    Bibliographical note

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