On the development of tools for decision analyses

A. Agusta, S. Thöns

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaperResearchpeer-review

Abstract

Decision and Value of Information analyses can be highly computational demanding due to the exponential growth of the decision tree in dependency of the state and decision variables. Due to the advancement of computational methods in the last decades, decision problems with moderate complexity maybe solved by a software tool whereas highly complex analyses require tailored approaches, algorithms and large computational resources. This paper contains designs of Value of Information analyses tools and its progression in complexity and approaches to cope with computational challenges. The design of the tool is focused on the basic elements of a decision analysis (namely the probabilistic information precision models together with action and the relevant system state performance models) and the description of the principal concepts for establishing the probabilistic models. User interfaces with the generic probabilistic models and a software tool for moderately complex problems and for user defined models with a higher complexity are derived and introduced. With several examples, the utilization of the tool in different computational environments and the full exploitation of decision analyses results including the derivation of decision rules are demonstrated.
Original languageEnglish
Publication date2018
Number of pages8
Publication statusPublished - 2018
Event1st International Conference on Structural Integrity for Offshore Energy Industry - Aberdeen , United Kingdom
Duration: 6 Sep 20187 Sep 2018
Conference number: 1
https://www.asranet.co.uk/Conferences/SI

Conference

Conference1st International Conference on Structural Integrity for Offshore Energy Industry
Number1
CountryUnited Kingdom
CityAberdeen
Period06/09/201807/09/2018
Internet address

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