On decision optimality of terrorism risk mitigation measures for iconic bridges

Sebastian Thöns*, Mark G. Stewart

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

This paper describes the assessment of the cost efficiency of risk mitigation strategies for terrorist attacks with Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) for an iconic bridge structure. The assessment is performed with a decision theoretical framework building upon very recent advances in the COST Action TU1402 on Quantifying the Value of Structural Heath Monitoring. The decision scenario is formulated for a decision maker constituting an authority responsible for the societal safety of the infrastructure and consequently the direct risks for the infrastructure owner and the indirect risk due to fatalities and importance of the infrastructure are considered. The mitigation strategies are classified within the decision theoretical context as prior analyses for the assessment of protection strategies and as control strategies requiring a pre-posterior decision analysis. The identification of efficient risk mitigation strategies is based (1) on the risk and expected cost based optimization of actions and information and their combination before implementation, (2) on quantifying and ensuring the significance in risk and expected cost reduction and (3) on quantifying and ensuring a high probability of cost efficiency. These criteria, i.e. the optimality, significance and efficiency ensure the performance of the strategies at the decision point in time before implementation. It is found that the strategies are relying on the identification of the threat level and that control strategies are in favor as their significance and probability of efficiency are higher and their costs are adjustable. However, for high threat levels, both the bridge protection strategies and control strategies are cost efficient.
Original languageEnglish
JournalReliability Engineering & System Safety
Volume188
Pages (from-to)574-583
ISSN0951-8320
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2019

Keywords

  • Bayesian probability, utility and decision analysis
  • Decision optimality
  • Risk reduction
  • Terrorist attacks
  • Value of information

Cite this

@article{6bdd8011e537447994bfbbb6acdfefa5,
title = "On decision optimality of terrorism risk mitigation measures for iconic bridges",
abstract = "This paper describes the assessment of the cost efficiency of risk mitigation strategies for terrorist attacks with Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) for an iconic bridge structure. The assessment is performed with a decision theoretical framework building upon very recent advances in the COST Action TU1402 on Quantifying the Value of Structural Heath Monitoring. The decision scenario is formulated for a decision maker constituting an authority responsible for the societal safety of the infrastructure and consequently the direct risks for the infrastructure owner and the indirect risk due to fatalities and importance of the infrastructure are considered. The mitigation strategies are classified within the decision theoretical context as prior analyses for the assessment of protection strategies and as control strategies requiring a pre-posterior decision analysis. The identification of efficient risk mitigation strategies is based (1) on the risk and expected cost based optimization of actions and information and their combination before implementation, (2) on quantifying and ensuring the significance in risk and expected cost reduction and (3) on quantifying and ensuring a high probability of cost efficiency. These criteria, i.e. the optimality, significance and efficiency ensure the performance of the strategies at the decision point in time before implementation. It is found that the strategies are relying on the identification of the threat level and that control strategies are in favor as their significance and probability of efficiency are higher and their costs are adjustable. However, for high threat levels, both the bridge protection strategies and control strategies are cost efficient.",
keywords = "Bayesian probability, utility and decision analysis, Decision optimality, Risk reduction, Terrorist attacks, Value of information",
author = "Sebastian Th{\"o}ns and Stewart, {Mark G.}",
year = "2019",
doi = "10.1016/j.ress.2019.03.049",
language = "English",
volume = "188",
pages = "574--583",
journal = "Reliability Engineering & System Safety",
issn = "0951-8320",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

On decision optimality of terrorism risk mitigation measures for iconic bridges. / Thöns, Sebastian; Stewart, Mark G.

In: Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 188, 2019, p. 574-583.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - On decision optimality of terrorism risk mitigation measures for iconic bridges

AU - Thöns, Sebastian

AU - Stewart, Mark G.

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - This paper describes the assessment of the cost efficiency of risk mitigation strategies for terrorist attacks with Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) for an iconic bridge structure. The assessment is performed with a decision theoretical framework building upon very recent advances in the COST Action TU1402 on Quantifying the Value of Structural Heath Monitoring. The decision scenario is formulated for a decision maker constituting an authority responsible for the societal safety of the infrastructure and consequently the direct risks for the infrastructure owner and the indirect risk due to fatalities and importance of the infrastructure are considered. The mitigation strategies are classified within the decision theoretical context as prior analyses for the assessment of protection strategies and as control strategies requiring a pre-posterior decision analysis. The identification of efficient risk mitigation strategies is based (1) on the risk and expected cost based optimization of actions and information and their combination before implementation, (2) on quantifying and ensuring the significance in risk and expected cost reduction and (3) on quantifying and ensuring a high probability of cost efficiency. These criteria, i.e. the optimality, significance and efficiency ensure the performance of the strategies at the decision point in time before implementation. It is found that the strategies are relying on the identification of the threat level and that control strategies are in favor as their significance and probability of efficiency are higher and their costs are adjustable. However, for high threat levels, both the bridge protection strategies and control strategies are cost efficient.

AB - This paper describes the assessment of the cost efficiency of risk mitigation strategies for terrorist attacks with Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) for an iconic bridge structure. The assessment is performed with a decision theoretical framework building upon very recent advances in the COST Action TU1402 on Quantifying the Value of Structural Heath Monitoring. The decision scenario is formulated for a decision maker constituting an authority responsible for the societal safety of the infrastructure and consequently the direct risks for the infrastructure owner and the indirect risk due to fatalities and importance of the infrastructure are considered. The mitigation strategies are classified within the decision theoretical context as prior analyses for the assessment of protection strategies and as control strategies requiring a pre-posterior decision analysis. The identification of efficient risk mitigation strategies is based (1) on the risk and expected cost based optimization of actions and information and their combination before implementation, (2) on quantifying and ensuring the significance in risk and expected cost reduction and (3) on quantifying and ensuring a high probability of cost efficiency. These criteria, i.e. the optimality, significance and efficiency ensure the performance of the strategies at the decision point in time before implementation. It is found that the strategies are relying on the identification of the threat level and that control strategies are in favor as their significance and probability of efficiency are higher and their costs are adjustable. However, for high threat levels, both the bridge protection strategies and control strategies are cost efficient.

KW - Bayesian probability, utility and decision analysis

KW - Decision optimality

KW - Risk reduction

KW - Terrorist attacks

KW - Value of information

U2 - 10.1016/j.ress.2019.03.049

DO - 10.1016/j.ress.2019.03.049

M3 - Journal article

VL - 188

SP - 574

EP - 583

JO - Reliability Engineering & System Safety

JF - Reliability Engineering & System Safety

SN - 0951-8320

ER -