On decision analysis about proof loading with inference to untested components

Henning Brüske, Sebastian Thöns

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Abstract

In this paper, a model is presented that applies proof load testing to separate
components of structural systems before construction in order to update their
component and system reliability. This model may be beneficial if the structure
itself is difficult to proof load test and only its components can be tested. We discuss how the information of only one or a few tested components is inferred to further components. For this, a new approach is developed which facilitates to take the correlation of the components’ performance into account through the method of Bayesian updating using series and Daniels systems as models. With the proof loading information, the expected life-cycle benefits are computed within the framework of the Bayesian decision. The described framework is applied to offshore wind turbines. The life cycle economy is calculated based on a detailed cost and benefit analysis with consideration of the direct risks due to component deterioration, indirect risks due to system failure and the expected costs and direct risks of the proof loading procedure in a (pre-) posterior decision analysis. Based on this case study, it is demonstrated how the optimal decision can be determined and which effect the system behaviour of structural systems has.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationSafety, Reliability, Risk, Resilience and Sustainability of Structures and Infrastructure : 12th Int. Conf. on Structural Safety and Reliability, Vienna, Austria, 6–10 August 2017
Publication date2017
Pages3018-3029
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-903024-28-1
Publication statusPublished - 2017
Event12th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability - TU Wien, Vienna, Austria
Duration: 6 Aug 201710 Aug 2017
Conference number: 12

Conference

Conference12th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability
Number12
LocationTU Wien
CountryAustria
CityVienna
Period06/08/201710/08/2017

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