On a true value of risk

Igor Kozin*

*Corresponding author for this work

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    Abstract

    The paper suggests looking on probabilistic risk quantities and concepts through the prism of accepting one of the views: whether a true value of risk exists or not. It is argued that discussions until now have been primarily focused on closely related topics that are different from the topic of the current paper. The paper examines operational consequences of adhering to each of the views and contrasts them. It is demonstrated that operational differences on how and what probabilistic measures can be assessed and how they can be interpreted appear tangible. In particular, this concerns prediction intervals, the use of Byes rule, models of complete ignorance, hierarchical models of uncertainty, assignment of probabilities over possibility space and interpretation of derived probabilistic measures. Behavioural implications of favouring the either view are also briefly described.
    Original languageEnglish
    JournalInternational Journal of General Systems
    Volume47
    Issue number3
    Pages (from-to)263-277
    ISSN0308-1079
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2018

    Keywords

    • risk
    • true value
    • uncertainty
    • ignorance

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