NSON-DK energy system scenarios – Edition 2

Matti Juhani Koivisto, Juan Gea-Bermudez

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    This report describes the energy system scenarios developed in the NSON-DK project, with focus on the future massive offshore wind power and the associated offshore grid development in the North Sea region. An overall European energy system scenario based on previous research is first described. Then, the important updates and modification applied to it are presented to reach the NSON-DK scenarios towards 2050. The Balmorel energy system model is used to carry out investment optimization for a project-based and an offshore grid scenario. The offshore grid scenario includes integration of offshore wind hubs in the North Sea to the transmission infrastructure connecting the region. Countries in the North Sea region are modelled in detail, while surrounding countries participate in the energy market.
    Assumed variable renewable energy (VRE) generation costs are described in detail, with especially solar photovoltaic (PV) and offshore wind power costs expected to decrease significantly towards 2050. The DTU Wind Energy’s CorRES tool is used to estimate wind and solar PV capacity factors and model the spatiotemporal dependencies in VRE generation. In addition, costs related to the high-voltage direct current (HVDC) components are modelled and implemented in Balmorel to create a cost model for the North Sea offshore grid.
    The capability of Balmorel to model VRE generation and transmission investments simultaneously is used to find optimal shares of different VRE types in the scenarios with different grid structures (project-based vs. offshore grid). The resulting scenarios show that going towards an integrated North Sea grid is expected to increase the overall offshore wind share by 2050. Germany is seen as the country with most hub connected offshore wind, while UK is expected to see most offshore wind installations overall. Denmark is expected to be a significant electricity exporter by 2050, driven by good wind conditions and strong transmission connections to the neighbouring countries.
    Original languageEnglish
    PublisherDTU Wind Energy
    Number of pages44
    Publication statusPublished - 2018
    SeriesDTU Wind Energy E


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