NSON-DK energy system scenario

Matti Juhani Koivisto, Thure Traber

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This report introduces the set of basic data to define scenarios with realistic yet ambitious targets for offshore wind power development in the North Sea to be used in the NSON-DK project. The assumptions are in line with those of IEA for a two degree temperature increase scenario and correspond with a strong recovering of coal and crude oil prices, and a pronounced increase of CO2 prices from 2020. For the countries around the North Sea that are considered, the evolution of electricity demand is projected to be strongly impacted by aggressive energy efficiency policies that lead in total to stagnating consumption despite substantial electric vehicle up-take. To the contrary, Denmark is assumed to substantially increase its consumption, i.e. by 14% from 2020 to 2050. However, the Danish electricity system is looking forward to a decommissioning of the remaining coal fired power plants towards the mid of the century and replacing these capacities essentially with natural gas power plants. In Belgium, and Germany nuclear power plants are expected to be phased-out by 2035, with Sweden following this policy by 2050. Moreover, the economic outlook for nuclear in the other countries is also weak mainly due to pronounced competition from fluctuating renewable energies. In regard to wind energy, for Denmark it is suggested that onshore installations are not increased significantly after 2030. By contrast, a major increase in offshore wind energy is assumed. Corresponding with these offshore and onshore wind power developments, the proposed NSON-DK scenario projects at least 8 TWh higher expected annual wind generation for Denmark. Given the pronounced increases of offshore wind farms, the installations are expected to form significant clusters from 2030 onwards with particularly strong developments in the British Hornsea and on the Dogger Bank.
Original languageEnglish
PublisherDTU Wind Energy
Number of pages20
Publication statusPublished - 2017
SeriesDTU Wind Energy E

Bibliographical note

An updated NSON-DK energy system scenario report can be found here: http://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/nsondk-energy-system-scenarios--edition-2(a12307fd-b045-4d90-a745-38bca211b861).html


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