Nonlinear dynamics of meteorological variables: multifractality and chaotic invariants in daily records from Pastaza, Ecuador

Humberto Millán, Aleksandar Kalauzi, Milena Cukic, Riccardo Biondi

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

Weather represents the daily state of the atmosphere. It is usually considered as a chaotic nonlinear dynamical system. The objectives of the present study were (1) to investigate multifractal meteorological trends and rhythms at the Amazonian area of Ecuador and (2) to estimate some nonlinear invariants for describing the meteorological dynamics. Six meteorological variables were considered in the study. Datasets were collected on a daily basis from January 1st 2001 to January 1st 2005 (1,460 observations). Based on a new multifractal method, we found interesting fractal rhythms and trends of antipersistence patterns (Fractal Dimension > 1.5). Nonlinear time series analyses rendered Lyapunov exponent spectra containing more than one positive Lyapunov exponent in some cases. This sort of hyperchaotic structures could explain, to some extent, larger fractal dimension values as the Kaplan-Yorke dimension was also in most cases larger than two. The maximum prediction time ranged from xi = 1.69 days (approximately 41 h) for E/P ratio to xi = 14.71 days for evaporation. Nonlinear dynamics analyses could be combined with multifractal studies for describing the time evolution of meteorological variables.
Keyword: VENETO,VARIABILITY,DIMENSION,RAINFALL DATA,TRENDS,PROVINCE,AMAZONIAN AREA,TIME-SERIES,TEMPERATURE
Original languageEnglish
JournalTheoretical and Applied Climatology
Volume102
Issue number2-2
Pages (from-to)75
ISSN0177-798X
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2010
Externally publishedYes

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