NEWA Report on uncertainty quantification Deliverable D4.4

J. Fidel González-Rouco, Elena Garcia Bustamante, Andrea N. Hahmann, Ioanna Karagili, Jorge Navarro, Bjarke Tobias Olsen, Tija Sile, Björn Witha

Research output: Book/ReportReport

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Abstract

This report explores the quantification of uncertainty in the NEWA production run and probabilistic ensemble. Uncertainty quantification relies on the availability of model simulations and observations. In areas where observations are not available, uncertainty addresses the quantification of the variability resulting from the sensitivity of the model chain tool resulting from the sampling of all the available model configurations tested. Uncertainty can be here regarded as the quantification of model sensitivity or model spread. In areas with availability of observations, the realism of the model ensemble is evaluated by establishing metrics of model-data comparison. Therefore, uncertainty is understood here as the result of the contributions of model sensitivity to different model setups, and of model errors in a model-data comparison framework.

The first part of this report explores the uncertainty derived from model sensitivity subjected to the decisions taken regarding the use of different models setups and how these produce variability in model output. The range of this variability has been regarded as spread in model output and has been quantified in various manners. The second part of this report addresses how model performance can be characterised with the data at hand and whether decisions regarding selection of a given model setup for a production run can be taken on the basis of model performance in a variety of situations, using different variables and datasets as observational targets: wind data from tall masts in the Vestas database; wind speed profiles from tall masts and offshore lidars; surface (10-meter) wind data; satellite data and reanalysis outputs.
Original languageEnglish
PublisherNEWA - New European Wind Atlas
VolumeDeliverable D4.4
Number of pages105
ISBN (Print)978-87-93278-88-2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2019

Keywords

  • NEWA D4.4 report
  • Work Package 4
  • Mesoscale Group

Cite this

González-Rouco, J. F., Bustamante, E. G., Hahmann, A. N., Karagili, I., Navarro, J., Olsen, B. T., ... Witha, B. (2019). NEWA Report on uncertainty quantification Deliverable D4.4. NEWA - New European Wind Atlas. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3382572
González-Rouco, J. Fidel ; Bustamante, Elena Garcia ; Hahmann, Andrea N. ; Karagili, Ioanna ; Navarro, Jorge ; Olsen, Bjarke Tobias ; Sile, Tija ; Witha, Björn. / NEWA Report on uncertainty quantification Deliverable D4.4. NEWA - New European Wind Atlas, 2019. 105 p.
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González-Rouco, JF, Bustamante, EG, Hahmann, AN, Karagili, I, Navarro, J, Olsen, BT, Sile, T & Witha, B 2019, NEWA Report on uncertainty quantification Deliverable D4.4. vol. Deliverable D4.4, NEWA - New European Wind Atlas. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3382572

NEWA Report on uncertainty quantification Deliverable D4.4. / González-Rouco, J. Fidel ; Bustamante, Elena Garcia ; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Karagili, Ioanna ; Navarro, Jorge ; Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; Sile, Tija; Witha, Björn.

NEWA - New European Wind Atlas, 2019. 105 p.

Research output: Book/ReportReport

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AB - This report explores the quantification of uncertainty in the NEWA production run and probabilistic ensemble. Uncertainty quantification relies on the availability of model simulations and observations. In areas where observations are not available, uncertainty addresses the quantification of the variability resulting from the sensitivity of the model chain tool resulting from the sampling of all the available model configurations tested. Uncertainty can be here regarded as the quantification of model sensitivity or model spread. In areas with availability of observations, the realism of the model ensemble is evaluated by establishing metrics of model-data comparison. Therefore, uncertainty is understood here as the result of the contributions of model sensitivity to different model setups, and of model errors in a model-data comparison framework. The first part of this report explores the uncertainty derived from model sensitivity subjected to the decisions taken regarding the use of different models setups and how these produce variability in model output. The range of this variability has been regarded as spread in model output and has been quantified in various manners. The second part of this report addresses how model performance can be characterised with the data at hand and whether decisions regarding selection of a given model setup for a production run can be taken on the basis of model performance in a variety of situations, using different variables and datasets as observational targets: wind data from tall masts in the Vestas database; wind speed profiles from tall masts and offshore lidars; surface (10-meter) wind data; satellite data and reanalysis outputs.

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González-Rouco JF, Bustamante EG, Hahmann AN, Karagili I, Navarro J, Olsen BT et al. NEWA Report on uncertainty quantification Deliverable D4.4. NEWA - New European Wind Atlas, 2019. 105 p. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3382572