New vigour involving statisticians to overcome ensemble fatigue

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article – Annual report year: 2017Researchpeer-review


  • Author: Benestad, Rasmus

    Norwegian Meteorological Institute

  • Author: Sillmann, Jana

    Center for International Climate Research Oslo

  • Author: Thorarinsdottir, Thordis Linda

    Norwegian Computing Center

  • Author: Guttorp, Peter

    University of Washington

  • Author: Mesquita, Michel D. S.

    Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research

  • Author: Tye, Mari R.

    National Center for Atmospheric Research

  • Author: Uotila, Petteri

    Finnish Meteorological Institute

  • Author: Maule, Cathrine Fox

    Statistics Denmark

  • Author: Thejll, Peter

    Danish Meteorological Institute

  • Author: Drews, Martin

    Systems Analysis, Department of Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark

  • Author: Parding, Kajsa M.

    Norwegian Meteorological Institute

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Climate simulation data comprise a range of different phenomena with complex and interacting processes. Yet our understanding of the climate is incomplete despite the huge volumes of data, of which only a small fraction has been explored, and many questions remain, particularly those on the character and origin of uncertainties associated with model simulations and how further modelling efforts can improve understanding. Here, we question whether climate model information could be used more effectively and how so-called 'ensembles of opportunity' should be interpreted. Statisticians can contribute substantially to designing 'smarter' ensemble experiments, improving the distillation of information from ensembles, and helping interpret the relative merits of additional simulations. Future progress may be enhanced by increasing collaborations with statisticians.
Original languageEnglish
JournalNature Climate Change
Issue number10
Pages (from-to)697-703
Publication statusPublished - 2017
CitationsWeb of Science® Times Cited: No match on DOI

ID: 138596059