New vigour involving statisticians to overcome ensemble fatigue

Rasmus Benestad, Jana Sillmann, Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir, Peter Guttorp, Michel D. S. Mesquita, Mari R. Tye, Petteri Uotila, Cathrine Fox Maule, Peter Thejll, Martin Drews, Kajsa M. Parding

    Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

    Abstract

    Climate simulation data comprise a range of different phenomena with complex and interacting processes. Yet our understanding of the climate is incomplete despite the huge volumes of data, of which only a small fraction has been explored, and many questions remain, particularly those on the character and origin of uncertainties associated with model simulations and how further modelling efforts can improve understanding. Here, we question whether climate model information could be used more effectively and how so-called 'ensembles of opportunity' should be interpreted. Statisticians can contribute substantially to designing 'smarter' ensemble experiments, improving the distillation of information from ensembles, and helping interpret the relative merits of additional simulations. Future progress may be enhanced by increasing collaborations with statisticians.
    Original languageEnglish
    JournalNature Climate Change
    Volume7
    Issue number10
    Pages (from-to)697-703
    ISSN1758-678X
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2017

    Cite this

    Benestad, R., Sillmann, J., Thorarinsdottir, T. L., Guttorp, P., Mesquita, M. D. S., Tye, M. R., Uotila, P., Maule, C. F., Thejll, P., Drews, M., & Parding, K. M. (2017). New vigour involving statisticians to overcome ensemble fatigue. Nature Climate Change, 7(10), 697-703. https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3393