New methods to measure and model logistics and goods effects by the use of the CLG-DSS Model

This paper concerns the assessment and modelling of so-called logistics and goods effects (LG-effects) as part of a wider economic analysis by use of the developed CLG-DSS model. The results presented are based an on-going study, Task 9 about evaluation modelling and decision support systems (DSS) in the Centre for Logistics and Goods Transport (CLG) 2001-2005 funded by the Danish Council for Technical-Scientific Research (STVF). Within the area of research on logistics the interaction between logistics and transportation is of great relevance. Task 9 and other recent studies have found that several companies are taking account of logistics and transport by setting up, among other things, specific departments to improve their handling. Some aspects in the transport sector concerning goods movement and consequences have not so far got the attention they deserve. In CLG Task 9 four LG-effects have been identified as relevant to examine due to large-scale infrastructure changes such as the Great Belt Fixed Link or the Øresund Fixed Link: • Changes in the frequency of consignments/shipments • Changes in regularity • Spatial enlargement of the market • Relocation of warehouses and/or production facilities The aim of this paper is to present these four LG-effects with a special emphasis on a possible way of modelling these and interpreting their importance. The calculations are carried out by using the CLG-DSS model and case studies concerning the fixed links across the Great Belt and Øresund. It is proposed to model the effects in two ways. First the paper presents a combined method modelling the four effects into one aggregate effect characterized by the goods-related time benefits. Second the paper describes a more refined, disaggregate method approach that, however, at this stage only concerns the relocation impact mentioned above. The two method approaches can briefly be described as follows. Aggregate method based on time benefits This method involves the determination of transported goods - in this case context across the fixed link. One problem when modelling the effect is basically to get reliable statistics concerning the amount and types of goods transported. A modelling expression is formulated and explained. A case calculation to illustrate the model approach gives a benefit-cost ratio for this impact. Disaggregate method with emphasis on relocation This method develops a factor to be related to the calculated goods time benefit. The basis of this method is mainly established by interviews and information from companies that have actually been relocating either production facilities or warehouses as a consequence of the large infrastructure changes implied by the new major fixed links. Specifically, the so-called relocation factor is defined by looking at the total share of goods transported across the Great Belt Fixed Link combined with the goods transported by the company that has actually been relocating. It is thereby possible to determine the relocation factor that expresses the relocation contribution to the LG-effects. An overview of the complete disaggregate method is also presented. Finally the paper presents some conclusions and lists some up-coming research tasks within a research perspective.