New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis

Kim Bang Salling (Invited author)

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference abstract in proceedingsResearch

    Abstract

    This presentation sets out a new methodology for examining the uncertainties relating to transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. Traditional transport infrastructure projects are based upon cost-benefit analyses in order to appraise the projects feasibility. Recent research however has proved that the point estimates derived from such analyses are embedded with a large degree of uncertainty. Thus, a new scheme was proposed in terms of applying quantitative risk analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation in order to represent the uncertainties within the cost-benefit analysis. Additionally, the handling of uncertainties is supplemented by making use of the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits (user demands i.e. travel time savings) and underestimating investment costs.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationPalisade Risk Conference : New approaches to Risk and Decison Analysis
    Publication date2010
    Publication statusPublished - 2010
    EventPalisade Risk Conference : New Approaches to Risk and Decision Analysis - London, United Kingdom
    Duration: 1 Jan 2010 → …

    Conference

    ConferencePalisade Risk Conference : New Approaches to Risk and Decision Analysis
    CityLondon, United Kingdom
    Period01/01/2010 → …

    Keywords

    • Quantitative Risk Analysis, Reference Class Forecasting, Reference Scenario Forecasting, Optimism Bias, Transport Project Evaluaiton

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