Abstract
This presentation sets out a new methodology for examining the uncertainties relating to transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. Traditional transport infrastructure projects are based upon cost-benefit analyses in order to appraise the projects feasibility. Recent research however has proved that the point estimates derived from such analyses are embedded with a large degree of uncertainty. Thus, a new scheme was proposed in terms of applying quantitative risk analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation in order to represent the uncertainties within the cost-benefit analysis. Additionally, the handling of uncertainties is supplemented by making use of the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits (user demands i.e. travel time savings) and underestimating investment costs.
| Original language | English |
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| Title of host publication | Palisade Risk Conference : New approaches to Risk and Decison Analysis |
| Publication date | 2010 |
| Publication status | Published - 2010 |
| Event | Palisade Risk Conference : New Approaches to Risk and Decision Analysis - London, United Kingdom Duration: 1 Jan 2010 → … |
Conference
| Conference | Palisade Risk Conference : New Approaches to Risk and Decision Analysis |
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| City | London, United Kingdom |
| Period | 01/01/2010 → … |
Keywords
- Quantitative Risk Analysis, Reference Class Forecasting, Reference Scenario Forecasting, Optimism Bias, Transport Project Evaluaiton