New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis

Kim Bang Salling

New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis

Kim Bang Salling (Invited author)

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference abstract in proceedings › Research

Abstract

This presentation sets out a new methodology for examining the uncertainties relating to transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. Traditional transport infrastructure projects are based upon cost-benefit analyses in order to appraise the projects feasibility. Recent research however has proved that the point estimates derived from such analyses are embedded with a large degree of uncertainty. Thus, a new scheme was proposed in terms of applying quantitative risk analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation in order to represent the uncertainties within the cost-benefit analysis. Additionally, the handling of uncertainties is supplemented by making use of the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits (user demands i.e. travel time savings) and underestimating investment costs.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Palisade Risk Conference : New approaches to Risk and Decison Analysis
Publication date	2010
Publication status	Published - 2010
Event	Palisade Risk Conference : New Approaches to Risk and Decision Analysis - London, United Kingdom Duration: 1 Jan 2010 → …

Conference

Conference	Palisade Risk Conference : New Approaches to Risk and Decision Analysis
City	London, United Kingdom
Period	01/01/2010 → …

Keywords

Quantitative Risk Analysis, Reference Class Forecasting, Reference Scenario Forecasting, Optimism Bias, Transport Project Evaluaiton

Access to Document

http://www.palisade.com/2010conf/London/

Cite this

Salling, K. B. (2010). New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis. In Palisade Risk Conference: New approaches to Risk and Decison Analysis http://www.palisade.com/2010conf/London/

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AB - This presentation sets out a new methodology for examining the uncertainties relating to transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. Traditional transport infrastructure projects are based upon cost-benefit analyses in order to appraise the projects feasibility. Recent research however has proved that the point estimates derived from such analyses are embedded with a large degree of uncertainty. Thus, a new scheme was proposed in terms of applying quantitative risk analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation in order to represent the uncertainties within the cost-benefit analysis. Additionally, the handling of uncertainties is supplemented by making use of the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits (user demands i.e. travel time savings) and underestimating investment costs.

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