Multivariate Modelling of Extreme Load Combinations for Wind Turbines

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    Abstract

    We demonstrate a model for estimating the joint probability distribution of two load components acting on a wind turbine blade cross section. The model addresses the problem of modelling the probability distribution of load time histories with large periodic components by dividing the signal into a periodic part and a perturbation term, where each part has a known probability distribution. The proposed model shows good agreement with simulated data under stationary conditions, and a design load envelope based on this model is comparable to the load envelope estimated using the standard procedure for determining contemporaneous loads. By defining a joint probability distribution and full return-period contours for multiple load components, the suggested procedure gives the possibility for determining the most critical loading direction in a blade cross section, or for carrying out reliability analysis on an entire cross section.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationProceedings of the 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP12)
    EditorsTerje Haukaas
    Number of pages8
    PublisherThe University of British Columbia
    Publication date2015
    Publication statusPublished - 2015
    Event12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering - Vancouver, Canada
    Duration: 12 Jul 201515 Jul 2015
    Conference number: 12

    Conference

    Conference12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering
    Number12
    Country/TerritoryCanada
    CityVancouver
    Period12/07/201515/07/2015

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