Multi-Path OD-Matrix Estimation (MPME) based on Stochastic User Equilibrium Traffic Assignment

Most conventional methods for estimating trip matrices from traffic counts assume either that the counts are error-free, determin-istic variables or they use a simplified traffic assignment model. Without these assumptions, the methods often demand prohibitive calculation times. The paper presents a matrix-estimation method, 'Multiple Path Matrix Estimation' (MPME), that is able to handle traffic counts with inconsistencies and uncertainties. In addition, the matrix reflects the route choice patterns given by traffic assignment models following the Method of Successive Averages (MSA). Actually, the method builds to a large extent on the concept of MSA. It is most promising to base MPME on the principle of Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE) route choice. MPME has been tested and used successfully in several full-size cases (from small cities with 25,000 inhabitants to metropolitan areas with 5 million inhabitants). In all cases, the method gave lower deviations between traffic counts and estimated traffic than other tested methods. The method converged smoothly within calculation times of a few hours.