Modelling transport modal shift in TIMES models through elasticities of substitution

Raffaele Salvucci*, Jacopo Tattini, Maurizio Gargiulo, Antti Lehtilä, Kenneth Bernard Karlsson

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

    Abstract

    Several efforts have been directed lately towards the endogenisation of transport modes competition in Energy/Economy/Environment/Engineering (E4) models. TIMES-DKEMS is a novel methodology paving the way for applying elasticities of substitution to incorporate transport modal shift into TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) models. Substitution elasticities are defined for four transport demand aggregates, each corresponding to a different distance range class. Within an aggregate, modal demands can adjust their levels according to the defined substitution elasticity and in response to changes of their shadow prices relative to a reference case. The total volume of the transport demand over the aggregate is conserved and modal shift potentials are implemented to guarantee realistic dynamics. The behavior of TIMES-DKEMS is tested under an arbitrary environmental policy, an increasingly stringent bound on CO2 emissions. Modal shares are compared with the standard version of TIMES-DK. Results show that in 2050, 11% of car mobility demand is substituted by more efficient and less costly modes such as train and coach. A sensitivity analysis on the values of substitution elasticities indicates that higher absolute values correspond to larger modal shift. Finally, other model constraints, such as mode-specific travel patterns, interact with the substitution mechanism resulting in a modal shift containment.
    Original languageEnglish
    JournalApplied Energy
    Volume232
    Pages (from-to)740-751
    ISSN0306-2619
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2018

    Keywords

    • Elasticities
    • Energy system modeling
    • Modal shift
    • TIMES models
    • Transport
    • Substitution mechanisms

    Cite this

    Salvucci, Raffaele ; Tattini, Jacopo ; Gargiulo, Maurizio ; Lehtilä, Antti ; Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard. / Modelling transport modal shift in TIMES models through elasticities of substitution. In: Applied Energy. 2018 ; Vol. 232. pp. 740-751.
    @article{63a1b8f3133a4ce88a9fdd0bb8a41afb,
    title = "Modelling transport modal shift in TIMES models through elasticities of substitution",
    abstract = "Several efforts have been directed lately towards the endogenisation of transport modes competition in Energy/Economy/Environment/Engineering (E4) models. TIMES-DKEMS is a novel methodology paving the way for applying elasticities of substitution to incorporate transport modal shift into TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) models. Substitution elasticities are defined for four transport demand aggregates, each corresponding to a different distance range class. Within an aggregate, modal demands can adjust their levels according to the defined substitution elasticity and in response to changes of their shadow prices relative to a reference case. The total volume of the transport demand over the aggregate is conserved and modal shift potentials are implemented to guarantee realistic dynamics. The behavior of TIMES-DKEMS is tested under an arbitrary environmental policy, an increasingly stringent bound on CO2 emissions. Modal shares are compared with the standard version of TIMES-DK. Results show that in 2050, 11{\%} of car mobility demand is substituted by more efficient and less costly modes such as train and coach. A sensitivity analysis on the values of substitution elasticities indicates that higher absolute values correspond to larger modal shift. Finally, other model constraints, such as mode-specific travel patterns, interact with the substitution mechanism resulting in a modal shift containment.",
    keywords = "Elasticities, Energy system modeling, Modal shift, TIMES models, Transport, Substitution mechanisms",
    author = "Raffaele Salvucci and Jacopo Tattini and Maurizio Gargiulo and Antti Lehtil{\"a} and Karlsson, {Kenneth Bernard}",
    year = "2018",
    doi = "10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.09.083",
    language = "English",
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    Modelling transport modal shift in TIMES models through elasticities of substitution. / Salvucci, Raffaele; Tattini, Jacopo; Gargiulo, Maurizio; Lehtilä, Antti; Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard.

    In: Applied Energy, Vol. 232, 2018, p. 740-751.

    Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Modelling transport modal shift in TIMES models through elasticities of substitution

    AU - Salvucci, Raffaele

    AU - Tattini, Jacopo

    AU - Gargiulo, Maurizio

    AU - Lehtilä, Antti

    AU - Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard

    PY - 2018

    Y1 - 2018

    N2 - Several efforts have been directed lately towards the endogenisation of transport modes competition in Energy/Economy/Environment/Engineering (E4) models. TIMES-DKEMS is a novel methodology paving the way for applying elasticities of substitution to incorporate transport modal shift into TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) models. Substitution elasticities are defined for four transport demand aggregates, each corresponding to a different distance range class. Within an aggregate, modal demands can adjust their levels according to the defined substitution elasticity and in response to changes of their shadow prices relative to a reference case. The total volume of the transport demand over the aggregate is conserved and modal shift potentials are implemented to guarantee realistic dynamics. The behavior of TIMES-DKEMS is tested under an arbitrary environmental policy, an increasingly stringent bound on CO2 emissions. Modal shares are compared with the standard version of TIMES-DK. Results show that in 2050, 11% of car mobility demand is substituted by more efficient and less costly modes such as train and coach. A sensitivity analysis on the values of substitution elasticities indicates that higher absolute values correspond to larger modal shift. Finally, other model constraints, such as mode-specific travel patterns, interact with the substitution mechanism resulting in a modal shift containment.

    AB - Several efforts have been directed lately towards the endogenisation of transport modes competition in Energy/Economy/Environment/Engineering (E4) models. TIMES-DKEMS is a novel methodology paving the way for applying elasticities of substitution to incorporate transport modal shift into TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) models. Substitution elasticities are defined for four transport demand aggregates, each corresponding to a different distance range class. Within an aggregate, modal demands can adjust their levels according to the defined substitution elasticity and in response to changes of their shadow prices relative to a reference case. The total volume of the transport demand over the aggregate is conserved and modal shift potentials are implemented to guarantee realistic dynamics. The behavior of TIMES-DKEMS is tested under an arbitrary environmental policy, an increasingly stringent bound on CO2 emissions. Modal shares are compared with the standard version of TIMES-DK. Results show that in 2050, 11% of car mobility demand is substituted by more efficient and less costly modes such as train and coach. A sensitivity analysis on the values of substitution elasticities indicates that higher absolute values correspond to larger modal shift. Finally, other model constraints, such as mode-specific travel patterns, interact with the substitution mechanism resulting in a modal shift containment.

    KW - Elasticities

    KW - Energy system modeling

    KW - Modal shift

    KW - TIMES models

    KW - Transport

    KW - Substitution mechanisms

    U2 - 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.09.083

    DO - 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.09.083

    M3 - Journal article

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    JO - Applied Energy

    JF - Applied Energy

    SN - 0306-2619

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