Modelling pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus) wintering distributions for the year 2050: potential effects of land-use change in Europe

Mary Wisz, Nicolas Dendoncker, Jesper Madsen, Mark Rounsevell, Martin Jespersen, Eckhart Kuijken, Wouter Courtens, Christine Verscheure, Fred Cottaar

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

Feeding on farmland by overwintering populations of pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) conflicts with agricultural interests in Northern Europe. In order to forecast the potential future of this conflict, we used generalized linear models to relate the presence and absence of pink-footed geese to variables describing the contemporary landscape, and predicted their future distributions in relation to two land-use scenarios for the year 2050. One future scenario represented a global, economically orientated world (A1) and the other represented a regional, environmentally concerned world (B2). The probability of goose occurrence increased within cropland and grassland, and could be explained by their proximity to coast, elevation, and the degree of habitat closure. Predictions to future scenarios revealed noticeable shifts in the suitability of goose habitat evident at the local and regional scale in response to future shifts in land use. In particular, as grasslands and croplands give way to unsuitable land-use types (e.g. woody biofuel crops, increased urbanization, and forest) under both future scenarios, our models predicted a decrease in habitat suitability for geese. If coupled with continued goose population expansion, we expect that the agricultural conflict will intensify under the A1 and particularly the B2 scenarios.
Original languageEnglish
JournalDiversity and Distributions
Volume14
Issue number5
Pages (from-to)721-731
ISSN1366-9516
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2008
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences (all)
  • Ecology
  • Agricultural conflict
  • Anser brachyrhynchus
  • Biofuel
  • Future land-use scenario
  • Species distribution model
  • biofuel
  • ecological impact
  • ecological modeling
  • geographical distribution
  • grassland
  • human activity
  • land use change
  • overwintering
  • population distribution
  • species occurrence
  • urbanization
  • waterfowl
  • Eurasia
  • Europe
  • Northern Europe
  • Anser
  • BIODIVERSITY
  • ECOLOGY
  • CLIMATE-CHANGE
  • SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS
  • FIELD UTILIZATION
  • FUTURE SCENARIOS
  • HABITAT MODELS
  • WEST JUTLAND
  • GEESE
  • DISTURBANCE
  • RANGE
  • VULNERABILITY
  • agricultural conflict
  • future land-use scenario
  • species distribution model
  • future land‐use scenario
  • Europe Palearctic region
  • geographic distribution
  • land use
  • Aves Vertebrata Chordata Animalia (Animals, Birds, Chordates, Nonhuman Vertebrates, Vertebrates) - Anseriformes [85504] Anser brachyrhynchus species pink-footed goose common
  • 00512, General biology - Conservation and resource management
  • 04500, Mathematical biology and statistical methods
  • 07502, Ecology: environmental biology - General and methods
  • 07508, Ecology: environmental biology - Animal
  • 07518, Ecology: environmental biology - Wildlife management: terrestrial
  • 10515, Biophysics - Biocybernetics
  • 62800, Animal distribution
  • Computational Biology
  • Conservation
  • Population Studies
  • Biogeography
  • Models and Simulations
  • Wildlife Management

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