Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties: Risk Assessment and Scenario Analysis

Kim Bang Salling, Steen Leleur

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingArticle in proceedingsResearchpeer-review

    Abstract

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating investment costs, with a quantitative risk analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation and to make use of a set of exploratory scenarios. The analysis is carried out by using the CBA-DK model representing the Danish standard approach to socio-economic cost-benefit analysis. Specifically, the paper proposes to supplement Optimism Bias and the associated Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) technique with a new technique that makes use of a scenario-grid. We tentatively introduce and refer to this as Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF). The final RSF output from the CBA-DK model consists of a set of scenario-based graphs which function as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationThe 6th International Mediterranean Modelling Multiconference : The International Workshop on Modelling & Applied Simulation
    Place of PublicationUniversidad de La Laguna
    PublisherUniversidad de La Laguna
    Publication date2009
    Pages85-91
    ISBN (Print)978-84-692-5417-2
    Publication statusPublished - 2009
    EventThe 6th International Mediterranean Modelling Multiconference : The International Workshop on Modelling & Applied Simulation - Tenerife, Spain
    Duration: 1 Jan 2009 → …

    Conference

    ConferenceThe 6th International Mediterranean Modelling Multiconference : The International Workshop on Modelling & Applied Simulation
    CityTenerife, Spain
    Period01/01/2009 → …

    Keywords

    • reference class forecasting
    • decision support
    • reference scenario forecasting
    • risk analysis

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