Modelling expected train passenger delays on large scale railway networks

Forecasts of regularity for railway systems have traditionally – if at all – been computed for trains, not for passengers. Relatively recently it has become possible to model and evaluate the actual passenger delays by a passenger regularity model for the operation already carried out. First the paper describes the passenger regularity model used to calculate passenger delays of the Copenhagen suburban rail network the previous day. Secondly, the paper describes how it is possible to estimate future passenger delays by combining the passenger regularity model with railway simulation software. The paper demonstrates the possibility of predicting future passenger delays by calculating the expected passenger regularity of the entire Copenhagen suburban network. The results obtained with the passenger regularity model used together with the simulation software are very similar to the daily calculated passenger regularity of the Copenhagen suburban network. Since the method to predict the future passenger regularity includes simulation software and reflects the actual passenger regularity, it is possible to use a combination of a passenger regularity model and simulation software to evaluate and compare future scenarios. In this way it is possible to estimate the network effects of the passengers and to identify critical stations or sections in the railway network for further investigation or optimization.