Modelling Dietary Exposure to Chemical Components in Heat-Processed Meats

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Abstract

Several chemical compounds that potentially increase the risk of developing cancer in humans are formed during heat processing of meat. Estimating the overall health impact of these compounds in the population requires accurate estimation of the exposure to the chemicals, as well as the probability that different levels of exposure result in disease. The overall goal of this study was to evaluate the impact of variability of exposure patterns and uncertainty of exposure data in burden of disease estimates. We focus on the first phase of burden of disease modelling, i.e. the estimation of exposure to selected compounds in the Danish population, based on concentration and consumption data. One of the challenges that arises in the probabilistic modelling of exposure is the presence of “artificial” zero counts in concentration data due to the detection level of the applied tests. Zeroinflated models, e.g. the Poisson-Lognormal approach, are promising tools to address this obstacle. The exposure estimates can then be applied to dose-response models to quantify the cancer risk.
Original languageEnglish
Publication date2017
Number of pages1
Publication statusPublished - 2017
Event17th Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis International Conference - De Morgan House of the London Mathematical Society, London, United Kingdom
Duration: 6 Jun 20179 Jun 2017

Conference

Conference17th Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis International Conference
LocationDe Morgan House of the London Mathematical Society
CountryUnited Kingdom
CityLondon
Period06/06/201709/06/2017

Keywords

  • Burden of disease
  • Exposure modelling
  • Model fitting

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