Modeling Decision Support and Uncertainty using @RISK: The COSIMA-ROAD Model

Kim Bang Salling (Invited author), Steen Leleur (Invited author)

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    Abstract

    This paper concerns a newly developed software model called COSIMA-ROAD for project evaluation in the Danish road sector. COSIMA-ROAD is developed as a combined effort in co-operation between the Danish Road Directorate and the Technical University of Denmark. The applied case study is developed by the Danish Road Directorate. The main purpose of this paper is primarily to describe how @RISK is used in COSIMA-ROAD. First the two main modules of COSIMA-ROAD are described as respectively a traditional cost-benefit analysis (deterministic point estimate) and a risk analysis using Monte Carlo Simulation (stochastic interval estimate). Next the actual case example is presented with the obtained results. Finally, conclusions and a perspective of the future modeling work are given.
    Original languageEnglish
    Publication date2006
    Publication statusPublished - 2006
    Event1st European Palisade User Conference -
    Duration: 1 Jan 2006 → …

    Conference

    Conference1st European Palisade User Conference
    Period01/01/2006 → …

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