Methods for assessing social impacts of policies in relation to absolute boundaries

There is an urgent need for designing truly sustainable policies supporting transformational change, and consequently for integrated tools to avoid burden shifting from different dimensions of sustainability. The Safe and Just Operating Space concept holds potential to support sustainable design of policies and decision making, using both the planetary boundaries framework and key social dimensions on an absolute perspective. Yet there is a lack of associated quantitative social assessment approaches. A new methodology is developed to evaluate the social sustainability of a policy against absolute boundaries. First, the methodology quantifies the state of a system, in 15 social dimensions defined systematically. Second, it estimates the social impacts of a new policy and observes if it will contribute to reduce the social shortfall. A geothermal energy development policy in Uganda is taken as an illustrative example for proof-of-concept. In the metrics of the Social Foundation of the Just Operating Space, the implementation of the policy would substantially improve the social performance of Energy and Health. Conclusively, this methodology holds potential to help early-phase policy design that do not unintentionally shift burdens between social dimensions, albeit further work remains to test the methodology and apply it in absolute integrated assessments.