Meteorological Uncertainty of atmospheric Dispersion model results (MUD)

Jens Havskov Sørensen, Bjarne Amstrup, Henrik Feddersen, Ulrik Smith Korsholm, Jerzy Bartnicki, Inger-Lise Frogner, Heiko Klein, Alvaro Valdebenito, Peter Wind, Viel Ødegaard, Bent Lauritzen, Steen Cordt Hoe, Jonas Lindgren

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    Abstract

    The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as possibilities for optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the ‘most likely’ dispersion scenario. However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for long-range atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent uncertainties of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological observations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing e.g. the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observational data, an ensemble of meteorological forecasts is produced from which uncertainties in the various meteorological parameters are estimated, e.g. probabilities for rain. Corresponding ensembles of atmospheric dispersion can now be computed from which uncertainties of predicted radionuclide concentration and deposition patterns can be derived.
    Original languageEnglish
    PublisherNKS Secretariat
    Number of pages55
    ISBN (Electronic)978-87-7893-367-6
    Publication statusPublished - 2013
    SeriesNKS
    Number291

    Keywords

    • NKS-291
    • Nuclear emergency preparedness
    • Atmospheric dispersion model
    • Meteorology
    • Uncertainty
    • Ensemble prediction

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