MCDA and Risk Analysis in Transport Infrastructure Appraisals: the Rail Baltica Case

Inga Ambrasaite, Michael Bruhn Barfod, Kim Bang Salling

    Research output: Contribution to journalConference articleResearchpeer-review


    This paper sets out a decision support system (DSS), COSIMA, involving the combination of cost-benefit analysis and multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) for transport infrastructure appraisals embracing both economic and strategic impacts. However, some shortcomings appear in the methodology regarding the uncertainties embedded within the criteria weights in the MCDA-part of COSIMA. Therefore, this paper presents the perspective of introducing risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation to the weighting profile in the MCDA-part. The DSS is presented through a case study concerning alternatives for the construction of the Rail Baltica railway line through the Baltic countries and Poland.
    Original languageEnglish
    JournalProcedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Pages (from-to)944-953
    Publication statusPublished - 2011
    Event26th Mini-EURO Conference
    : Decision Making in Transportation / Logistics: New Trends and Directions
    - Poznan, Poland
    Duration: 6 Sep 20119 Sep 2011
    Conference number: 26


    Conference26th Mini-EURO Conference
    OtherHeld jointly with 14th EURO Working Group on Transportation Meeting & 1st European Scientific Conference on Air Transport.
    Internet address


    • Composite Modelling Assessment
    • Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
    • Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • Risk Analysis
    • Decision Support Systems


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