MCDA and Risk Analysis in Transport Infrastructure Appraisals: the Rail Baltica Case

Inga Ambrasaite, Michael Bruhn Barfod, Kim Bang Salling

    Research output: Contribution to journalConference articleResearchpeer-review

    Abstract

    This paper sets out a decision support system (DSS), COSIMA, involving the combination of cost-benefit analysis and multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) for transport infrastructure appraisals embracing both economic and strategic impacts. However, some shortcomings appear in the methodology regarding the uncertainties embedded within the criteria weights in the MCDA-part of COSIMA. Therefore, this paper presents the perspective of introducing risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation to the weighting profile in the MCDA-part. The DSS is presented through a case study concerning alternatives for the construction of the Rail Baltica railway line through the Baltic countries and Poland.

    Conference

    Conference14th EURO Working Group on Transportation Meeting - 26th Mini-EURO Conference - 1st European Scientific Conference on Air Transport. Joint Event : In Quest for Advanced Models, Tools and Methods for Transportation/Logistics - Intelligent Decision Making in Transportation /Logistics. New Trends and Directions - Research Hirozon
    CityPoznan, Poland
    Period01/01/2011 → …

    Keywords

    • Composite Modelling Assessment
    • Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
    • Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • Risk Analysis
    • Decision Support Systems

    Cite this

    @inproceedings{3e884253d20e49508abf43cea32b10c0,
    title = "MCDA and Risk Analysis in Transport Infrastructure Appraisals: the Rail Baltica Case",
    abstract = "This paper sets out a decision support system (DSS), COSIMA, involving the combination of cost-benefit analysis and multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) for transport infrastructure appraisals embracing both economic and strategic impacts. However, some shortcomings appear in the methodology regarding the uncertainties embedded within the criteria weights in the MCDA-part of COSIMA. Therefore, this paper presents the perspective of introducing risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation to the weighting profile in the MCDA-part. The DSS is presented through a case study concerning alternatives for the construction of the Rail Baltica railway line through the Baltic countries and Poland.",
    keywords = "Composite Modelling Assessment, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Risk Analysis, Decision Support Systems",
    author = "Inga Ambrasaite and Barfod, {Michael Bruhn} and Salling, {Kim Bang}",
    year = "2011",
    doi = "10.1016/j.sbspro.2011.08.103",
    language = "English",
    volume = "20",
    pages = "944--953",
    journal = "Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences",
    issn = "1877-0428",
    publisher = "Elsevier",

    }

    MCDA and Risk Analysis in Transport Infrastructure Appraisals: the Rail Baltica Case. / Ambrasaite, Inga; Barfod, Michael Bruhn; Salling, Kim Bang.

    In: Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vol. 20, 2011, p. 944-953.

    Research output: Contribution to journalConference articleResearchpeer-review

    TY - GEN

    T1 - MCDA and Risk Analysis in Transport Infrastructure Appraisals: the Rail Baltica Case

    AU - Ambrasaite, Inga

    AU - Barfod, Michael Bruhn

    AU - Salling, Kim Bang

    PY - 2011

    Y1 - 2011

    N2 - This paper sets out a decision support system (DSS), COSIMA, involving the combination of cost-benefit analysis and multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) for transport infrastructure appraisals embracing both economic and strategic impacts. However, some shortcomings appear in the methodology regarding the uncertainties embedded within the criteria weights in the MCDA-part of COSIMA. Therefore, this paper presents the perspective of introducing risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation to the weighting profile in the MCDA-part. The DSS is presented through a case study concerning alternatives for the construction of the Rail Baltica railway line through the Baltic countries and Poland.

    AB - This paper sets out a decision support system (DSS), COSIMA, involving the combination of cost-benefit analysis and multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) for transport infrastructure appraisals embracing both economic and strategic impacts. However, some shortcomings appear in the methodology regarding the uncertainties embedded within the criteria weights in the MCDA-part of COSIMA. Therefore, this paper presents the perspective of introducing risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation to the weighting profile in the MCDA-part. The DSS is presented through a case study concerning alternatives for the construction of the Rail Baltica railway line through the Baltic countries and Poland.

    KW - Composite Modelling Assessment

    KW - Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    KW - Cost-Benefit Analysis

    KW - Risk Analysis

    KW - Decision Support Systems

    U2 - 10.1016/j.sbspro.2011.08.103

    DO - 10.1016/j.sbspro.2011.08.103

    M3 - Conference article

    VL - 20

    SP - 944

    EP - 953

    JO - Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences

    JF - Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences

    SN - 1877-0428

    ER -