MCDA and Risk Analysis in Transport Infrastructure Appraisals: the Rail Baltica Case

Inga Ambrasaite, Michael Bruhn Barfod, Kim Bang Salling

    Research output: Contribution to journalConference articleResearchpeer-review


    This paper sets out a decision support system (DSS), COSIMA, involving the combination of cost-benefit analysis and multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) for transport infrastructure appraisals embracing both economic and strategic impacts. However, some shortcomings appear in the methodology regarding the uncertainties embedded within the criteria weights in the MCDA-part of COSIMA. Therefore, this paper presents the perspective of introducing risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation to the weighting profile in the MCDA-part. The DSS is presented through a case study concerning alternatives for the construction of the Rail Baltica railway line through the Baltic countries and Poland.


    Conference14th EURO Working Group on Transportation Meeting - 26th Mini-EURO Conference - 1st European Scientific Conference on Air Transport. Joint Event : In Quest for Advanced Models, Tools and Methods for Transportation/Logistics - Intelligent Decision Making in Transportation /Logistics. New Trends and Directions - Research Hirozon
    CityPoznan, Poland
    Period01/01/2011 → …


    • Composite Modelling Assessment
    • Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
    • Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • Risk Analysis
    • Decision Support Systems

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