Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018

Andrew Shepherd, Erik Ivins, Eric Rignot, Ben Smith, Michiel van den Broeke, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa Whitehouse, Kate Briggs, Ian Joughin, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Tony Payne, Ted Scambos, Nicole Schlegel, A. Geruo, Cécile Agosta, Andreas Ahlstrøm, Greg Babonis, Valentina R. Barletta, Anders A. BjørkAlejandro Blazquez, Jennifer Bonin, William Colgan, Beata Csatho, Richard Cullather, Marcus E. Engdahl, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Anna E. Hogg, Hubert Gallee, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian Gunter, Edward Hanna, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Alexander Horvath, Martin Horwath, Shfaqat Khan, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit Lecavalier, Bryant Loomis, Scott Luthcke, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian Mernild, Yara Mohajerani, Philip Moore, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Gorka Moyano, Alan Muir, Thomas Nagler, Grace Nield, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Ines Otosaka, Mark E. Pattle, W. Richard Peltier, Nadège Pie, Roelof Rietbroek, Helmut Rott, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu Save, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Ki-Weon Seo, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler Sutterley, Matthieu Talpe, Lev Tarasov, Willem Jan van de Berg, Wouter van der Wal, Melchior van Wessem, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, David Wiese, David Wilton, Thomas Wagner, Bert Wouters, Jan Wuite, The IMBIE Team

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise1,2, and it is expected to be so in the future3. Although increases in glacier flow4–6 and surface melting7–9 have been driven by oceanic10–12 and atmospheric13,14 warming, the degree and trajectory of today’s imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet’s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. Although the ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 335 ± 62 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,800 ± 339 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.6 ± 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,971 ± 555 billion tonnes (52%) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,827 ± 538 billion tonnes (48%) of ice loss was due to increased glacier discharge, which rose from 41 ± 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 ± 25 billion tonnes per year since then. Between 2013 and 2017, the total rate of ice loss slowed to 217 ± 32 billion tonnes per year, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions15 and as ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbræ16. Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the IPCC’s predicted rates for their high-end climate warming scenario17, which forecast an additional 50 to 120 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 when compared to their central estimate.
Original languageEnglish
JournalNature
ISSN1476-4687
DOIs
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 2019

Cite this

Shepherd, A., Ivins, E., Rignot, E., Smith, B., van den Broeke, M., Velicogna, I., ... Team, T. IMBIE. (Accepted/In press). Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1855-2
Shepherd, Andrew ; Ivins, Erik ; Rignot, Eric ; Smith, Ben ; van den Broeke, Michiel ; Velicogna, Isabella ; Whitehouse, Pippa ; Briggs, Kate ; Joughin, Ian ; Krinner, Gerhard ; Nowicki, Sophie ; Payne, Tony ; Scambos, Ted ; Schlegel, Nicole ; Geruo, A. ; Agosta, Cécile ; Ahlstrøm, Andreas ; Babonis, Greg ; Barletta, Valentina R. ; Bjørk, Anders A. ; Blazquez, Alejandro ; Bonin, Jennifer ; Colgan, William ; Csatho, Beata ; Cullather, Richard ; Engdahl, Marcus E. ; Felikson, Denis ; Fettweis, Xavier ; Forsberg, Rene ; Hogg, Anna E. ; Gallee, Hubert ; Gardner, Alex ; Gilbert, Lin ; Gourmelen, Noel ; Groh, Andreas ; Gunter, Brian ; Hanna, Edward ; Harig, Christopher ; Helm, Veit ; Horvath, Alexander ; Horwath, Martin ; Khan, Shfaqat ; Kjeldsen, Kristian K. ; Konrad, Hannes ; Langen, Peter L. ; Lecavalier, Benoit ; Loomis, Bryant ; Luthcke, Scott ; McMillan, Malcolm ; Melini, Daniele ; Mernild, Sebastian ; Mohajerani, Yara ; Moore, Philip ; Mottram, Ruth ; Mouginot, Jeremie ; Moyano, Gorka ; Muir, Alan ; Nagler, Thomas ; Nield, Grace ; Nilsson, Johan ; Noël, Brice ; Otosaka, Ines ; Pattle, Mark E. ; Peltier, W. Richard ; Pie, Nadège ; Rietbroek, Roelof ; Rott, Helmut ; Sørensen, Louise Sandberg ; Sasgen, Ingo ; Save, Himanshu ; Scheuchl, Bernd ; Schrama, Ernst ; Schröder, Ludwig ; Seo, Ki-Weon ; Simonsen, Sebastian B. ; Slater, Thomas ; Spada, Giorgio ; Sutterley, Tyler ; Talpe, Matthieu ; Tarasov, Lev ; Jan van de Berg, Willem ; van der Wal, Wouter ; van Wessem, Melchior ; Vishwakarma, Bramha Dutt ; Wiese, David ; Wilton, David ; Wagner, Thomas ; Wouters, Bert ; Wuite, Jan ; Team, The IMBIE. / Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018. In: Nature. 2019.
@article{318b7aaaa0e8494287fe8a45e677cec2,
title = "Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018",
abstract = "In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise1,2, and it is expected to be so in the future3. Although increases in glacier flow4–6 and surface melting7–9 have been driven by oceanic10–12 and atmospheric13,14 warming, the degree and trajectory of today’s imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet’s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. Although the ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 335 ± 62 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,800 ± 339 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.6 ± 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,971 ± 555 billion tonnes (52{\%}) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,827 ± 538 billion tonnes (48{\%}) of ice loss was due to increased glacier discharge, which rose from 41 ± 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 ± 25 billion tonnes per year since then. Between 2013 and 2017, the total rate of ice loss slowed to 217 ± 32 billion tonnes per year, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions15 and as ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbr{\ae}16. Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the IPCC’s predicted rates for their high-end climate warming scenario17, which forecast an additional 50 to 120 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 when compared to their central estimate.",
author = "Andrew Shepherd and Erik Ivins and Eric Rignot and Ben Smith and {van den Broeke}, Michiel and Isabella Velicogna and Pippa Whitehouse and Kate Briggs and Ian Joughin and Gerhard Krinner and Sophie Nowicki and Tony Payne and Ted Scambos and Nicole Schlegel and A. Geruo and C{\'e}cile Agosta and Andreas Ahlstr{\o}m and Greg Babonis and Barletta, {Valentina R.} and Bj{\o}rk, {Anders A.} and Alejandro Blazquez and Jennifer Bonin and William Colgan and Beata Csatho and Richard Cullather and Engdahl, {Marcus E.} and Denis Felikson and Xavier Fettweis and Rene Forsberg and Hogg, {Anna E.} and Hubert Gallee and Alex Gardner and Lin Gilbert and Noel Gourmelen and Andreas Groh and Brian Gunter and Edward Hanna and Christopher Harig and Veit Helm and Alexander Horvath and Martin Horwath and Shfaqat Khan and Kjeldsen, {Kristian K.} and Hannes Konrad and Langen, {Peter L.} and Benoit Lecavalier and Bryant Loomis and Scott Luthcke and Malcolm McMillan and Daniele Melini and Sebastian Mernild and Yara Mohajerani and Philip Moore and Ruth Mottram and Jeremie Mouginot and Gorka Moyano and Alan Muir and Thomas Nagler and Grace Nield and Johan Nilsson and Brice No{\"e}l and Ines Otosaka and Pattle, {Mark E.} and Peltier, {W. Richard} and Nad{\`e}ge Pie and Roelof Rietbroek and Helmut Rott and S{\o}rensen, {Louise Sandberg} and Ingo Sasgen and Himanshu Save and Bernd Scheuchl and Ernst Schrama and Ludwig Schr{\"o}der and Ki-Weon Seo and Simonsen, {Sebastian B.} and Thomas Slater and Giorgio Spada and Tyler Sutterley and Matthieu Talpe and Lev Tarasov and {Jan van de Berg}, Willem and {van der Wal}, Wouter and {van Wessem}, Melchior and Vishwakarma, {Bramha Dutt} and David Wiese and David Wilton and Thomas Wagner and Bert Wouters and Jan Wuite and Team, {The IMBIE}",
year = "2019",
doi = "10.1038/s41586-019-1855-2",
language = "English",
journal = "Nature",
issn = "0028-0836",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

}

Shepherd, A, Ivins, E, Rignot, E, Smith, B, van den Broeke, M, Velicogna, I, Whitehouse, P, Briggs, K, Joughin, I, Krinner, G, Nowicki, S, Payne, T, Scambos, T, Schlegel, N, Geruo, A, Agosta, C, Ahlstrøm, A, Babonis, G, Barletta, VR, Bjørk, AA, Blazquez, A, Bonin, J, Colgan, W, Csatho, B, Cullather, R, Engdahl, ME, Felikson, D, Fettweis, X, Forsberg, R, Hogg, AE, Gallee, H, Gardner, A, Gilbert, L, Gourmelen, N, Groh, A, Gunter, B, Hanna, E, Harig, C, Helm, V, Horvath, A, Horwath, M, Khan, S, Kjeldsen, KK, Konrad, H, Langen, PL, Lecavalier, B, Loomis, B, Luthcke, S, McMillan, M, Melini, D, Mernild, S, Mohajerani, Y, Moore, P, Mottram, R, Mouginot, J, Moyano, G, Muir, A, Nagler, T, Nield, G, Nilsson, J, Noël, B, Otosaka, I, Pattle, ME, Peltier, WR, Pie, N, Rietbroek, R, Rott, H, Sørensen, LS, Sasgen, I, Save, H, Scheuchl, B, Schrama, E, Schröder, L, Seo, K-W, Simonsen, SB, Slater, T, Spada, G, Sutterley, T, Talpe, M, Tarasov, L, Jan van de Berg, W, van der Wal, W, van Wessem, M, Vishwakarma, BD, Wiese, D, Wilton, D, Wagner, T, Wouters, B, Wuite, J & Team, TIMBIE 2019, 'Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018', Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1855-2

Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018. / Shepherd, Andrew; Ivins, Erik; Rignot, Eric; Smith, Ben; van den Broeke, Michiel; Velicogna, Isabella; Whitehouse, Pippa; Briggs, Kate; Joughin, Ian; Krinner, Gerhard; Nowicki, Sophie; Payne, Tony; Scambos, Ted; Schlegel, Nicole; Geruo, A.; Agosta, Cécile; Ahlstrøm, Andreas; Babonis, Greg; Barletta, Valentina R.; Bjørk, Anders A.; Blazquez, Alejandro; Bonin, Jennifer; Colgan, William; Csatho, Beata; Cullather, Richard; Engdahl, Marcus E.; Felikson, Denis; Fettweis, Xavier; Forsberg, Rene; Hogg, Anna E.; Gallee, Hubert; Gardner, Alex; Gilbert, Lin; Gourmelen, Noel; Groh, Andreas; Gunter, Brian; Hanna, Edward; Harig, Christopher; Helm, Veit; Horvath, Alexander; Horwath, Martin; Khan, Shfaqat; Kjeldsen, Kristian K.; Konrad, Hannes; Langen, Peter L.; Lecavalier, Benoit; Loomis, Bryant; Luthcke, Scott; McMillan, Malcolm; Melini, Daniele; Mernild, Sebastian; Mohajerani, Yara; Moore, Philip; Mottram, Ruth; Mouginot, Jeremie; Moyano, Gorka; Muir, Alan; Nagler, Thomas; Nield, Grace; Nilsson, Johan; Noël, Brice; Otosaka, Ines; Pattle, Mark E.; Peltier, W. Richard; Pie, Nadège; Rietbroek, Roelof; Rott, Helmut; Sørensen, Louise Sandberg; Sasgen, Ingo; Save, Himanshu; Scheuchl, Bernd; Schrama, Ernst; Schröder, Ludwig; Seo, Ki-Weon; Simonsen, Sebastian B.; Slater, Thomas; Spada, Giorgio; Sutterley, Tyler; Talpe, Matthieu; Tarasov, Lev; Jan van de Berg, Willem; van der Wal, Wouter; van Wessem, Melchior; Vishwakarma, Bramha Dutt; Wiese, David; Wilton, David; Wagner, Thomas; Wouters, Bert; Wuite, Jan; Team, The IMBIE.

In: Nature, 2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018

AU - Shepherd, Andrew

AU - Ivins, Erik

AU - Rignot, Eric

AU - Smith, Ben

AU - van den Broeke, Michiel

AU - Velicogna, Isabella

AU - Whitehouse, Pippa

AU - Briggs, Kate

AU - Joughin, Ian

AU - Krinner, Gerhard

AU - Nowicki, Sophie

AU - Payne, Tony

AU - Scambos, Ted

AU - Schlegel, Nicole

AU - Geruo, A.

AU - Agosta, Cécile

AU - Ahlstrøm, Andreas

AU - Babonis, Greg

AU - Barletta, Valentina R.

AU - Bjørk, Anders A.

AU - Blazquez, Alejandro

AU - Bonin, Jennifer

AU - Colgan, William

AU - Csatho, Beata

AU - Cullather, Richard

AU - Engdahl, Marcus E.

AU - Felikson, Denis

AU - Fettweis, Xavier

AU - Forsberg, Rene

AU - Hogg, Anna E.

AU - Gallee, Hubert

AU - Gardner, Alex

AU - Gilbert, Lin

AU - Gourmelen, Noel

AU - Groh, Andreas

AU - Gunter, Brian

AU - Hanna, Edward

AU - Harig, Christopher

AU - Helm, Veit

AU - Horvath, Alexander

AU - Horwath, Martin

AU - Khan, Shfaqat

AU - Kjeldsen, Kristian K.

AU - Konrad, Hannes

AU - Langen, Peter L.

AU - Lecavalier, Benoit

AU - Loomis, Bryant

AU - Luthcke, Scott

AU - McMillan, Malcolm

AU - Melini, Daniele

AU - Mernild, Sebastian

AU - Mohajerani, Yara

AU - Moore, Philip

AU - Mottram, Ruth

AU - Mouginot, Jeremie

AU - Moyano, Gorka

AU - Muir, Alan

AU - Nagler, Thomas

AU - Nield, Grace

AU - Nilsson, Johan

AU - Noël, Brice

AU - Otosaka, Ines

AU - Pattle, Mark E.

AU - Peltier, W. Richard

AU - Pie, Nadège

AU - Rietbroek, Roelof

AU - Rott, Helmut

AU - Sørensen, Louise Sandberg

AU - Sasgen, Ingo

AU - Save, Himanshu

AU - Scheuchl, Bernd

AU - Schrama, Ernst

AU - Schröder, Ludwig

AU - Seo, Ki-Weon

AU - Simonsen, Sebastian B.

AU - Slater, Thomas

AU - Spada, Giorgio

AU - Sutterley, Tyler

AU - Talpe, Matthieu

AU - Tarasov, Lev

AU - Jan van de Berg, Willem

AU - van der Wal, Wouter

AU - van Wessem, Melchior

AU - Vishwakarma, Bramha Dutt

AU - Wiese, David

AU - Wilton, David

AU - Wagner, Thomas

AU - Wouters, Bert

AU - Wuite, Jan

AU - Team, The IMBIE

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise1,2, and it is expected to be so in the future3. Although increases in glacier flow4–6 and surface melting7–9 have been driven by oceanic10–12 and atmospheric13,14 warming, the degree and trajectory of today’s imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet’s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. Although the ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 335 ± 62 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,800 ± 339 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.6 ± 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,971 ± 555 billion tonnes (52%) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,827 ± 538 billion tonnes (48%) of ice loss was due to increased glacier discharge, which rose from 41 ± 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 ± 25 billion tonnes per year since then. Between 2013 and 2017, the total rate of ice loss slowed to 217 ± 32 billion tonnes per year, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions15 and as ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbræ16. Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the IPCC’s predicted rates for their high-end climate warming scenario17, which forecast an additional 50 to 120 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 when compared to their central estimate.

AB - In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise1,2, and it is expected to be so in the future3. Although increases in glacier flow4–6 and surface melting7–9 have been driven by oceanic10–12 and atmospheric13,14 warming, the degree and trajectory of today’s imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet’s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. Although the ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 335 ± 62 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,800 ± 339 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.6 ± 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,971 ± 555 billion tonnes (52%) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,827 ± 538 billion tonnes (48%) of ice loss was due to increased glacier discharge, which rose from 41 ± 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 ± 25 billion tonnes per year since then. Between 2013 and 2017, the total rate of ice loss slowed to 217 ± 32 billion tonnes per year, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions15 and as ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbræ16. Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the IPCC’s predicted rates for their high-end climate warming scenario17, which forecast an additional 50 to 120 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 when compared to their central estimate.

U2 - 10.1038/s41586-019-1855-2

DO - 10.1038/s41586-019-1855-2

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 31822019

JO - Nature

JF - Nature

SN - 0028-0836

ER -

Shepherd A, Ivins E, Rignot E, Smith B, van den Broeke M, Velicogna I et al. Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018. Nature. 2019. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1855-2