Recent advances in oceanographic modelling mean that today we can forecast the state of the ocean with meaningful skill up to a decade in advance. Such forecasts are potentially of great value to society, as they span the gap between the short (days-to-weeks) time scales of weather forecasts and the long (century) time-scales of climate projections: importantly, these are the time scales where most users make important decisions. However, a translation step is required to convert the outputs from these models, which are typically physical variables, into variables that are directly relevant to end-users (e.g. distribution and productivity of fish stocks) to create so-called “climate services”. As an example of this process and its potential, I will describe the development of skilful forecasts of a biological variable on this 1-10 year time scale: the distribution of bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) in the North Atlantic. Further opportunities for forecasting variables, both globally and that are of direct relevance to Danish end-users will also be presented.
|Number of pages||1|
|Publication status||Published - 2016|
|Event||Sustain-ATV Conference 2016: Creating Technology for a Sustainable Society - Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark|
Duration: 30 Nov 2016 → 30 Nov 2016
|Conference||Sustain-ATV Conference 2016|
|Location||Technical University of Denmark|
|Period||30/11/2016 → 30/11/2016|