Marine Climate Services ‐ Forecasting the state of the ocean at end‐user relevant time‐scale

Mark Payne

Research output: Contribution to conferenceConference abstract for conferenceResearchpeer-review


Recent advances in oceanographic modelling mean that today we can forecast the state of the ocean with meaningful skill up to a decade in advance. Such forecasts are potentially of great value to society, as they span the gap between the short (days-to-weeks) time scales of weather forecasts and the long (century) time-scales of climate projections: importantly, these are the time scales where most users make important decisions. However, a translation step is required to convert the outputs from these models, which are typically physical variables, into variables that are directly relevant to end-users (e.g. distribution and productivity of fish stocks) to create so-called “climate services”. As an example of this process and its potential, I will describe the development of skilful forecasts of a biological variable on this 1-10 year time scale: the distribution of bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) in the North Atlantic. Further opportunities for forecasting variables, both globally and that are of direct relevance to Danish end-users will also be presented.
Original languageEnglish
Publication date2016
Number of pages1
Publication statusPublished - 2016
EventSustain-ATV Conference 2016: Creating Technology for a Sustainable Society - Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
Duration: 30 Nov 201630 Nov 2016


ConferenceSustain-ATV Conference 2016
LocationTechnical University of Denmark
CityKgs. Lyngby
Internet address

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Sustain Abstract S-2


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