Marine Climate Services ‐ Forecasting the state of the ocean at end‐user relevant time‐scale

Recent advances in oceanographic modelling mean that today we can forecast the state of the ocean with meaningful skill up to a decade in advance. Such forecasts are potentially of great value to society, as they span the gap between the short (days-to-weeks) time scales of weather forecasts and the long (century) time-scales of climate projections: importantly, these are the time scales where most users make important decisions. However, a translation step is required to convert the outputs from these models, which are typically physical variables, into variables that are directly relevant to end-users (e.g. distribution and productivity of fish stocks) to create so-called “climate services”. As an example of this process and its potential, I will describe the development of skilful forecasts of a biological variable on this 1-10 year time scale: the distribution of bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) in the North Atlantic. Further opportunities for forecasting variables, both globally and that are of direct relevance to Danish end-users will also be presented.