Long-term retrospective analysis of mackerel spawning in the North Sea: A new time series and modeling approach to CPR data

Teunis Jansen, Kasper Kristensen, Mark Payne, Martin Edwards, Corinna Schrum, Sophie Pitois

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Abstract

We present a unique view of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the North Sea based on a new time series of larvae caught by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey from 1948-2005, covering the period both before and after the collapse of the North Sea stock. Hydrographic backtrack modelling suggested that the effect of advection is very limited between spawning and larvae capture in the CPR survey. Using a statistical technique not previously applied to CPR data, we then generated a larval index that accounts for both catchability as well as spatial and temporal autocorrelation. The resulting time series documents the significant decrease of spawning from before 1970 to recent depleted levels.Spatial distributions of the larvae, and thus the spawning area, showed a shift from early to recent decades, suggesting that the central North Sea is no longer as important as the areas further west and south. These results provide a consistent and unique perspective on the dynamics of mackerel in this region and can potentially resolve many of the unresolved questions about this stock
Original languageEnglish
JournalPLOS ONE
Volume7
Issue number6
Pages (from-to)Art. no. e38758
ISSN1932-6203
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012

Cite this

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title = "Long-term retrospective analysis of mackerel spawning in the North Sea: A new time series and modeling approach to CPR data",
abstract = "We present a unique view of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the North Sea based on a new time series of larvae caught by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey from 1948-2005, covering the period both before and after the collapse of the North Sea stock. Hydrographic backtrack modelling suggested that the effect of advection is very limited between spawning and larvae capture in the CPR survey. Using a statistical technique not previously applied to CPR data, we then generated a larval index that accounts for both catchability as well as spatial and temporal autocorrelation. The resulting time series documents the significant decrease of spawning from before 1970 to recent depleted levels.Spatial distributions of the larvae, and thus the spawning area, showed a shift from early to recent decades, suggesting that the central North Sea is no longer as important as the areas further west and south. These results provide a consistent and unique perspective on the dynamics of mackerel in this region and can potentially resolve many of the unresolved questions about this stock",
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Long-term retrospective analysis of mackerel spawning in the North Sea : A new time series and modeling approach to CPR data. / Jansen, Teunis; Kristensen, Kasper; Payne, Mark; Edwards, Martin; Schrum, Corinna; Pitois, Sophie.

In: PLOS ONE, Vol. 7, No. 6, 2012, p. Art. no. e38758.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Long-term retrospective analysis of mackerel spawning in the North Sea

T2 - A new time series and modeling approach to CPR data

AU - Jansen, Teunis

AU - Kristensen, Kasper

AU - Payne, Mark

AU - Edwards, Martin

AU - Schrum, Corinna

AU - Pitois, Sophie

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - We present a unique view of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the North Sea based on a new time series of larvae caught by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey from 1948-2005, covering the period both before and after the collapse of the North Sea stock. Hydrographic backtrack modelling suggested that the effect of advection is very limited between spawning and larvae capture in the CPR survey. Using a statistical technique not previously applied to CPR data, we then generated a larval index that accounts for both catchability as well as spatial and temporal autocorrelation. The resulting time series documents the significant decrease of spawning from before 1970 to recent depleted levels.Spatial distributions of the larvae, and thus the spawning area, showed a shift from early to recent decades, suggesting that the central North Sea is no longer as important as the areas further west and south. These results provide a consistent and unique perspective on the dynamics of mackerel in this region and can potentially resolve many of the unresolved questions about this stock

AB - We present a unique view of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the North Sea based on a new time series of larvae caught by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey from 1948-2005, covering the period both before and after the collapse of the North Sea stock. Hydrographic backtrack modelling suggested that the effect of advection is very limited between spawning and larvae capture in the CPR survey. Using a statistical technique not previously applied to CPR data, we then generated a larval index that accounts for both catchability as well as spatial and temporal autocorrelation. The resulting time series documents the significant decrease of spawning from before 1970 to recent depleted levels.Spatial distributions of the larvae, and thus the spawning area, showed a shift from early to recent decades, suggesting that the central North Sea is no longer as important as the areas further west and south. These results provide a consistent and unique perspective on the dynamics of mackerel in this region and can potentially resolve many of the unresolved questions about this stock

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DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0038758

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SP - Art. no. e38758

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SN - 1932-6203

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