Long-term electricity load forecasting: Current and future trends

K. B. Lindberg*, P. Seljom, H. Madsen, D. Fischer, M. Korpås

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

Long-term power-system planning and operation, build on expectations concerning future electricity demand and future transmission/generation capacities. This paper reviews current methodologies for forecasting long-term hourly electricity demand on an aggregate scale (regional or nationally), for 10–50 years ahead. We discuss the challenges of these methodologies in a future energy system featuring more renewable energy sources and tighter coupling between the power sector and the building and transport sectors. Finally, we conclude with some recommendations on aspects to be taken into account regarding long-term load forecasts in a changing power system.

Original languageEnglish
JournalUtilities Policy
Volume58
Pages (from-to)102-119
ISSN0957-1787
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jun 2019

Keywords

  • Electricity demand
  • Flexibility
  • Long-term load forecasting

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