Long-term electricity load forecasting: Current and future trends

K. B. Lindberg; P. Seljom; H. Madsen; D. Fischer; M. Korpås

doi:10.1016/j.jup.2019.04.001

Long-term electricity load forecasting: Current and future trends

K. B. Lindberg^*, P. Seljom, H. Madsen, D. Fischer, M. Korpås

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Abstract

Long-term power-system planning and operation, build on expectations concerning future electricity demand and future transmission/generation capacities. This paper reviews current methodologies for forecasting long-term hourly electricity demand on an aggregate scale (regional or nationally), for 10–50 years ahead. We discuss the challenges of these methodologies in a future energy system featuring more renewable energy sources and tighter coupling between the power sector and the building and transport sectors. Finally, we conclude with some recommendations on aspects to be taken into account regarding long-term load forecasts in a changing power system.

Original language	English
Journal	Utilities Policy
Volume	58
Pages (from-to)	102-119
ISSN	0957-1787
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jup.2019.04.001
Publication status	Published - 1 Jun 2019

Keywords

Electricity demand
Flexibility
Long-term load forecasting

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.jup.2019.04.001

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AU - Lindberg, K. B.

AU - Seljom, P.

AU - Madsen, H.

AU - Fischer, D.

AU - Korpås, M.

PY - 2019/6/1

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AB - Long-term power-system planning and operation, build on expectations concerning future electricity demand and future transmission/generation capacities. This paper reviews current methodologies for forecasting long-term hourly electricity demand on an aggregate scale (regional or nationally), for 10–50 years ahead. We discuss the challenges of these methodologies in a future energy system featuring more renewable energy sources and tighter coupling between the power sector and the building and transport sectors. Finally, we conclude with some recommendations on aspects to be taken into account regarding long-term load forecasts in a changing power system.

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KW - Flexibility

KW - Long-term load forecasting

U2 - 10.1016/j.jup.2019.04.001

DO - 10.1016/j.jup.2019.04.001

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VL - 58

SP - 102

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JO - Utilities Policy

JF - Utilities Policy

ER -

Long-term electricity load forecasting: Current and future trends

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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