Long-term electricity load forecasting

Current and future trends

K. B. Lindberg*, P. Seljom, H. Madsen, D. Fischer, M. Korpås

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

Long-term power-system planning and operation, build on expectations concerning future electricity demand and future transmission/generation capacities. This paper reviews current methodologies for forecasting long-term hourly electricity demand on an aggregate scale (regional or nationally), for 10–50 years ahead. We discuss the challenges of these methodologies in a future energy system featuring more renewable energy sources and tighter coupling between the power sector and the building and transport sectors. Finally, we conclude with some recommendations on aspects to be taken into account regarding long-term load forecasts in a changing power system.

Original languageEnglish
JournalUtilities Policy
Volume58
Pages (from-to)102-119
Number of pages18
ISSN0957-1787
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jun 2019

Keywords

  • Electricity demand
  • Flexibility
  • Long-term load forecasting

Cite this

Lindberg, K. B. ; Seljom, P. ; Madsen, H. ; Fischer, D. ; Korpås, M. / Long-term electricity load forecasting : Current and future trends. In: Utilities Policy. 2019 ; Vol. 58. pp. 102-119.
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Long-term electricity load forecasting : Current and future trends. / Lindberg, K. B.; Seljom, P.; Madsen, H.; Fischer, D.; Korpås, M.

In: Utilities Policy, Vol. 58, 01.06.2019, p. 102-119.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Long-term electricity load forecasting

T2 - Current and future trends

AU - Lindberg, K. B.

AU - Seljom, P.

AU - Madsen, H.

AU - Fischer, D.

AU - Korpås, M.

PY - 2019/6/1

Y1 - 2019/6/1

N2 - Long-term power-system planning and operation, build on expectations concerning future electricity demand and future transmission/generation capacities. This paper reviews current methodologies for forecasting long-term hourly electricity demand on an aggregate scale (regional or nationally), for 10–50 years ahead. We discuss the challenges of these methodologies in a future energy system featuring more renewable energy sources and tighter coupling between the power sector and the building and transport sectors. Finally, we conclude with some recommendations on aspects to be taken into account regarding long-term load forecasts in a changing power system.

AB - Long-term power-system planning and operation, build on expectations concerning future electricity demand and future transmission/generation capacities. This paper reviews current methodologies for forecasting long-term hourly electricity demand on an aggregate scale (regional or nationally), for 10–50 years ahead. We discuss the challenges of these methodologies in a future energy system featuring more renewable energy sources and tighter coupling between the power sector and the building and transport sectors. Finally, we conclude with some recommendations on aspects to be taken into account regarding long-term load forecasts in a changing power system.

KW - Electricity demand

KW - Flexibility

KW - Long-term load forecasting

U2 - 10.1016/j.jup.2019.04.001

DO - 10.1016/j.jup.2019.04.001

M3 - Journal article

VL - 58

SP - 102

EP - 119

JO - Utilities Policy

JF - Utilities Policy

SN - 0957-1787

ER -