Life cycle inventory and risk assessment of genetic modified perennial ryegrass in a technology foresight perspective

Due to the complexity and advanced nature of modern biotechnology and to its content of risk and ethic matters it is necessary to face the challenge of making the prospect comprehensible and transparent to society. Using life cycle inventory (LCI), expert panels and weighted expert questionnaires, a methodological approach is suggested to analyse the uncertainties that the biotech industry and the authorities face when implementing genetically modified (GM) crops. These uncertainties embrace scientific rationality regarding technological development and risk assessments, as well as ethic political and social matters, which are based on more dispersed matters. In a test case on the development of a GM-ryegrass (that is incapable of producing stems and flowers during grassland farming) incorporated answers to a questionnaire from different types of experts and stakeholders identified four drivers as the most important and uncertain factors for the future direction of GM crops: 1) public participation in regulation, 2) utility value for the consumers, 3) being first to market GM-ryegrass, and 4) an efficient professional network. Based on the identified drivers several scenarios were constructed, of which two are presented in the report.