Integrating realistic technology's retirement profile in TIMES models - The case of the Danish car sector

Jacopo Tattini, Maurizio Gargiulo

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    Policy analyses conducted with national TIMES models identified that the representation of retirement profile in the car sector is overly optimistic. In traditional TIMES models, the capacity of future installed technologies is constant until the end of the lifetime. However, analyses on cars’ retirement profiles found out that the real-life retirement profiles are far from constant. They are characterised by a low decay in the first years after purchase and by a long tail in the distribution, meaning that few cars remain in the car stock for long time. A recent version of the TIMES code (TIMES v4.2.0) has been equipped with a novel attribute that enables to improve the representation of technology’s retirement profile. This study utilizes such new attribute within TIMES-DKMS softlinked to DCSM (the Danish Car Stock Model), aiming at reaching a more detailed and realistic representation of the survival profile of car technologies. The study finds out that an early ban on sales and import of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars is not sufficient to decarbonise the Danish inland transportation sector by 2050, and that scrapping incentives are needed to replace ICE cars with low- and zero-emission vehicles, thus enabling the fulfilment of the Danish environmental targets in 2050.
    Original languageEnglish
    Number of pages9
    Publication statusPublished - 2018


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