Infrastructure and spatial effects on the frequency of cyclist-motorist collisions in the Copenhagen Region

Carlo Giacomo Prato, Sigal Kaplan, Thomas Kjær Rasmussen, Tove Hels

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    Abstract

    Promoting cycling aims at reducing congestion and pollution as well as encouraging healthy and sustainable lifestyles but generally clashes with the perception of crash risk while riding a bicycle that is still the most significant disincentive to cycling. This study sheds light on the factors affecting the probability of cyclist-motorist collisions while accounting for heterogeneity and spatial correlation. The current study analyzed the factors contributing to increase crash risk while riding a bicycle by focusing on 5,349 cyclist-motorist collisions within 269 traffic zones in the Copenhagen Region. The model controlled for traffic exposure for bicycles and motorized transport modes, evaluated the effects of infrastructure and socioeconomic characteristics of the zones, and accounted for heterogeneity and spatial correlation across the zones. A Poisson-lognormal model with second-order conditional autoregressive (CAR) priors confirmed the existence of the safety in numbers phenomenon, contradicted previous literature about bicycle facilities not being helpful in reducing crash risk, highlighted the need for Copenhagen-style bicycle paths especially in suburban areas, and emphasized how heterogeneity and spatial correlation play a significant role in explaining the probability of cyclist-motorist crash occurrence.
    Original languageEnglish
    JournalJournal of Transportation Safety & Security
    Volume8
    Issue number4
    Pages (from-to)346-360
    Number of pages15
    ISSN1943-9962
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2016

    Keywords

    • Transportation
    • Safety Research
    • Cycling
    • Cycling exposure
    • Cycling–motorist crashes
    • Poisson-lognormal CAR model
    • Spatial correlation
    • TRANSPORTATION
    • HEALTH IMPACT ASSESSMENT
    • STATISTICAL-ANALYSIS
    • ACTIVE TRAVEL
    • NORTH-AMERICA
    • RISK
    • CRASHES
    • POLICIES
    • DENMARK
    • SAFETY
    • CITY
    • cycling
    • cycling-motorist crashes
    • cycling exposure
    • spatial correlation

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