Information Display for Decisions under Uncertainty

Melanie Kreye, Yee Mey Goh, Linda B. Newnes

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingArticle in proceedingsResearchpeer-review

Abstract

To assure the success of a project or new product, the consideration of Through Life Costs (TLC) is an important factor. The process of forecasting and decision making is essential to produce accurate estimates. In this context, the information given to the decision maker and the time available for a decision are often limited, especially in early design stages. The estimation of TLC deals with the future of the considered product or project and the future is not known. That means uncertainty is inherent to the decision making process in forecasting and cost estimation. In an uncertain world good decisions can lead to bad consequences and vice versa [Radner 2000]. To support the decision making process taking into account the uncertainty in TLC, the research presented in this paper introduces an experiment undertaken to test the subjective processing of forecasting information in order to produce an estimate. First, the state-of-the-art of current research in forecasting and decision making are explained. Then, the set-up of the experiment, realisation and results will be described. Finally, conclusions drawn will be explained and the impact on future research will be illustrated.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationDesign 2010
Number of pages10
PublisherDesign Society
Publication date2010
Publication statusPublished - 2010
Externally publishedYes
Event11th International Design Conference - Cavtat-Dubrivnik, Croatia
Duration: 17 May 201020 May 2010
http://www.designsociety.org/event/73/design_2010-11th_international_design_conference

Conference

Conference11th International Design Conference
Country/TerritoryCroatia
CityCavtat-Dubrivnik
Period17/05/201020/05/2010
Internet address

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