Inferring country-specific import risk of diseases from the world air transportation network

Pascal P. Klamser, Adrian Zachariae, Benjamin F. Maier, Olga Baranov, Clara Jongen, Frank Schlosser, Dirk Brockmann*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

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Abstract

Disease propagation between countries strongly depends on their effective distance, a measure derived from the world air transportation network (WAN). It reduces the complex spreading patterns of a pandemic to a wave-like propagation from the outbreak country, establishing a linear relationship to the arrival time of the unmitigated spread of a disease. However, in the early stages of an outbreak, what concerns decision-makers in countries is understanding the relative risk of active cases arriving in their country-essentially, the likelihood that an active case boarding an airplane at the outbreak location will reach them. While there are data-fitted models available to estimate these risks, accurate mechanistic, parameter-free models are still lacking. Therefore, we introduce the 'import risk' model in this study, which defines import probabilities using the effective-distance framework. The model assumes that airline passengers are distributed along the shortest path tree that starts at the outbreak's origin. In combination with a random walk, we account for all possible paths, thus inferring predominant connecting flights. Our model outperforms other mobility models, such as the radiation and gravity model with varying distance types, and it improves further if additional geographic information is included. The import risk model's precision increases for countries with stronger connections within the WAN, and it reveals a geographic distance dependence that implies a pull- rather than a push-dynamic in the distribution process.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere1011775
JournalPLOS Computational Biology
Volume20
Issue number1
Number of pages26
ISSN1553-734X
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 Klamser et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

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