Independent Paper Session: Energizing Public Futures: Stakeholder inclusion and anticipation on techno-economic data for longterm energy planning

This paper confronts the overall research question of what is the nature and quality of the contributions of experts, stakeholders, and the wider public in detailed techno-economical input to scenario analyses used for debating and policy decisions on the sustainable transition. Empirically, the paper considers the case of the ‘Danish Technology Catalogues’. There are multiple techno-economic pathways for the transition to a sustainable energy system (Rosenbloom, 2017). In this sense, there are plural sustainable futures. To address this, like other countries, Denmark employs a range of foresight and anticipatory approaches to establish a platform for debate on possible ways to a sustainable future that meet international targets for CO2 reductions. The Danish Energy Agency uses model-based scenarios to analyse different techno-economic pathways to achieve the sustainable transition of the energy system. The scenarios describe alternative futures and their implications. Possible consequences of these alternative futures are examined using an energy systems model based on the TIMES model framework. The scenarios and their consequences are used as a foundation for discussions and policy decisions on the sustainable transition.

All modelling is based on a range of input and epistemic assumptions about the future including whether it can be predicted in any useful modelling process (Silvast et al., 2020). In the Danish case, some inputs are based on internationally recognized forecasts provided by international organizations like World Energy Outlook from IEA. However, the Danish Energy Agency also develops the ‘Danish Technology Catalogues’. For each technology (e.g., large wind turbines offshore), a description of the present state of the technology and future prospectives are described, including assessments of future technoeconomic
data (e.g., cost and performance data) for time horizons of 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050. The techno-economic data typically contain technical issues (e.g., average unit size, outage percentage, technical lifetime, regulatory ability) and economic issues (e.g., CAPEX and O&M). If relevant, the assessments also contain environmental impact (e.g., emissions of SO2, NOx, and particles). The methodology used for establishing the data sets includes traditional foresight methods such as defining the technology, finding and selecting experts and stakeholders, expert reports, extrapolations, stakeholder workshops, wider public consulting, and dissemination of the results. The Danish Technology Catalogues are not only an exemplar of energy policy planning in Denmark. The data and the methods behind the data have become international influential and utilized as a more detailed and updated alternative to projections by international actors, e.g., IEA/OECD. Similar energy technology catalogues were developed for India in a governmental India-Denmark Energy Partnership.

The theoretical framework behind this paper draws from two coherent and established theoretical fields that are of relevance for addressing the research questions. First, we consider Science and Technology Studies approaches on public engagement in science and technology (Rowe and Frewer, 2005; Stirling, 2008; Stilgoe, Lock and Wilsdon, 2014; Kern, 2015; Selin et al., 2016), which we bring into the field of anticipation research. A sizable literature on this topic has documented that involving stakeholders and citizens in debates and research about science and technology is generally seen as crucial to secure an impact on actual policymaking and produce positive societal outcomes. However, Chilvers and Kearnes have recognized two different and potentially incompatible research and policy interests: one a normative interest in increasing participation and democracy, another a constructivist approach on a situated description of how the concept of the public is produced in different interventions (Chilvers and Kearnes, 2020). As both these lines show, the concepts of experts and stakeholders are contested and debated (Stirling, 2008; Freeman et al., 2010; Colvin, Witt and Lacey, 2016; Miles, 2017), both as concerns who is a participant in democratic processes and as concerns how these participants are constructed, and several studies have pointed at the blurred distinctions between experts, stakeholders, and researchers (Andersen, Hansen and Selin, 2021).

Second, we draw on the extensive literature on foresight, scenario planning and stakeholder involvement in scenarios. Scenarios are here considered as a method to engage stakeholders in a strategic conversation on exploring uncertainties, plotting alternative futures, and devising resilience policy and strategy options (van der Heiden, 1996; Cairns et al., 2013; Ramirez and Wilkingson, 2016).

Bringing insights from these two literatures together allows us to produce novel contributions considering how ideas of the future inform action in the present, especially by relying on assumptions about stakeholders and expertise that have implications for fairness and equity and should hence be opened up to critical inquiry and practical development. There exist a wealth of studies on stakeholder involvement in scenario planning in the domain of energy and sustainable development (Chilvers, Pallett and Hargreaves, 2018; Sovacool et al., 2020; Andersen, Hansen and Selin, 2021; McGookin, Ó Gallachóir and Byrne, 2021).

Furthermore, the asymmetric distribution of resources and power relations in scenario planning is an extensive research topic in scenario planning literature (Wright, Cairns and Bradfield, 2013; Cairns, Wright and Fairbrother, 2016; Bourgeois et al., 2017; Cairns and Wright, 2019). However, recent literature has tended to focus on engagement, particularly as public deliberation (Sovacool et al., 2020) and everyday engagement with energy technologies (Ryghaug, Skjølsvold and Heidenreich, 2018). Only a few studies exist on the very front end of the scenario process, where experts and stakeholder representatives are often involved in identifying assumptions about future trends and providing basic data (Andersen, Hansen and Selin, 2021). Although – or because of - the predictive nature of the assessments of techno-economic futures of the energy technologies, uncertainty is a key issue. Processes leading to plausible and reliable techno-economic data for future energy technologies are not trivial. There is a lack of studies of such data, particularly for emerging technologies (Fodstad et al., forthcoming). This situation makes the normally hidden data and methods underpinning energy futures, including their production, of interest to all those engaging with anticipation.