Implications of an antagonist age for maritime trade and its impacts on energy demand

In a time when high geopolitical tensions are affecting global trade patterns, we step back and challenge the common assumptions of low rivalry and perfect markets among nations in energy system modeling. We developed a gravity demand model to evaluate how antagonism, characterized by reduced globalization and rivalrous nation-to-nation relationships, impacts maritime trade patterns and energy demand levels needed to support the movement of trade goods. Our model enables maritime trade and energy demand projections to vary with stylized socioeconomic and geopolitical futures. The results show that increasing antagonism between nations leads to less energy-efficient routes and longer distances to cover. On average, these impacts increase annual maritime fuel demands by 13% (or 1,500 PJ or 110 MtonCO₂eq considering today's fuel mix). Thus, geopolitical tension exacerbates maritime climate mitigation challenges and therefore highlights the need to carefully shape this hard-to-abate sector's future to not increase emissions further.