Impact of Renewable Energy Forecast Imperfections on Market-Clearing Outcomes

Christos Ordoudis, Pierre Pinson

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingArticle in proceedingsResearchpeer-review

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Abstract

The increased integration of renewable energy sources, in particular wind and solar power, calls for changes in power system operation. Current market designs that are only efficient to accommodate limited uncertainty are highly challenged
by the partly predictable renewable energy generation. Hence, innovative market structures have been proposed to cope with the uncertainty introduced. Nonetheless, the quality of wind power forecasts may affect the market outcome due to their inaccuracy. For this reason, a framework is proposed to examine market-clearing algorithms, both deterministic and stochastic approaches, under imperfect wind power forecasts in order to quantify their influence on the market outcome. Results show that mean value mismatch between “estimated” and “realized” distributions has the highest impact on total system cost. Finally, it is examined if cost recovery for market players is guaranteed in the presence of inaccurate wind power forecasts.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of IEEE International Energy Conference 2016
Number of pages6
PublisherIEEE
Publication date2016
ISBN (Print)978-1-4673-8463-6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2016
EventIEEE International Energy Conference 2016 - KU Leuven , Leuven , Belgium
Duration: 4 Apr 20168 Apr 2016

Conference

ConferenceIEEE International Energy Conference 2016
LocationKU Leuven
CountryBelgium
CityLeuven
Period04/04/201608/04/2016

Keywords

  • Bilevel programming
  • Electricity markets
  • Renewable energy forecasting
  • Stochastic programming

Cite this

Ordoudis, Christos ; Pinson, Pierre. / Impact of Renewable Energy Forecast Imperfections on Market-Clearing Outcomes. Proceedings of IEEE International Energy Conference 2016. IEEE, 2016.
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title = "Impact of Renewable Energy Forecast Imperfections on Market-Clearing Outcomes",
abstract = "The increased integration of renewable energy sources, in particular wind and solar power, calls for changes in power system operation. Current market designs that are only efficient to accommodate limited uncertainty are highly challengedby the partly predictable renewable energy generation. Hence, innovative market structures have been proposed to cope with the uncertainty introduced. Nonetheless, the quality of wind power forecasts may affect the market outcome due to their inaccuracy. For this reason, a framework is proposed to examine market-clearing algorithms, both deterministic and stochastic approaches, under imperfect wind power forecasts in order to quantify their influence on the market outcome. Results show that mean value mismatch between “estimated” and “realized” distributions has the highest impact on total system cost. Finally, it is examined if cost recovery for market players is guaranteed in the presence of inaccurate wind power forecasts.",
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Ordoudis, C & Pinson, P 2016, Impact of Renewable Energy Forecast Imperfections on Market-Clearing Outcomes. in Proceedings of IEEE International Energy Conference 2016. IEEE, IEEE International Energy Conference 2016, Leuven , Belgium, 04/04/2016. https://doi.org/10.1109/ENERGYCON.2016.7513962

Impact of Renewable Energy Forecast Imperfections on Market-Clearing Outcomes. / Ordoudis, Christos; Pinson, Pierre.

Proceedings of IEEE International Energy Conference 2016. IEEE, 2016.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingArticle in proceedingsResearchpeer-review

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AB - The increased integration of renewable energy sources, in particular wind and solar power, calls for changes in power system operation. Current market designs that are only efficient to accommodate limited uncertainty are highly challengedby the partly predictable renewable energy generation. Hence, innovative market structures have been proposed to cope with the uncertainty introduced. Nonetheless, the quality of wind power forecasts may affect the market outcome due to their inaccuracy. For this reason, a framework is proposed to examine market-clearing algorithms, both deterministic and stochastic approaches, under imperfect wind power forecasts in order to quantify their influence on the market outcome. Results show that mean value mismatch between “estimated” and “realized” distributions has the highest impact on total system cost. Finally, it is examined if cost recovery for market players is guaranteed in the presence of inaccurate wind power forecasts.

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