Impact of forecast errors on expansion planning of power systems with a renewables target

Salvador Pineda, Juan Miguel Morales González, Trine Krogh Boomsma

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of production forecast errors on the expansion planning of a power system and investigates the influence of market design to facilitate the integration of renewable generation. For this purpose, we propose a programming modeling framework to determine the generation and transmission expansion plan that minimizes system-wide investment and operating costs, while ensuring a given share of renewable generation in the electricity supply. Unlike existing ones, this framework includes both a day-ahead and a balancing market so as to capture the impact of both production forecasts and the associated prediction errors. Within this framework, we consider two paradigmatic market designs that essentially differ in whether the day-ahead generation schedule and the subsequent balancing re-dispatch are co-optimized or not. The main features and results of the model set-ups are discussed using an illustrative four-node example and a more realistic 24-node case study.
Original languageEnglish
JournalEuropean Journal of Operational Research
Volume248
Issue number3
Pages (from-to)1113-1122
ISSN0377-2217
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2015

Keywords

  • OR in energy
  • Bilevel programming
  • Expansion planning
  • Renewable energy sources
  • Market design

Cite this

Pineda, Salvador ; Morales González, Juan Miguel ; Boomsma, Trine Krogh. / Impact of forecast errors on expansion planning of power systems with a renewables target. In: European Journal of Operational Research. 2015 ; Vol. 248, No. 3. pp. 1113-1122.
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Impact of forecast errors on expansion planning of power systems with a renewables target. / Pineda, Salvador ; Morales González, Juan Miguel; Boomsma, Trine Krogh.

In: European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 248, No. 3, 2015, p. 1113-1122.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

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T1 - Impact of forecast errors on expansion planning of power systems with a renewables target

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AU - Morales González, Juan Miguel

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PY - 2015

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N2 - This paper analyzes the impact of production forecast errors on the expansion planning of a power system and investigates the influence of market design to facilitate the integration of renewable generation. For this purpose, we propose a programming modeling framework to determine the generation and transmission expansion plan that minimizes system-wide investment and operating costs, while ensuring a given share of renewable generation in the electricity supply. Unlike existing ones, this framework includes both a day-ahead and a balancing market so as to capture the impact of both production forecasts and the associated prediction errors. Within this framework, we consider two paradigmatic market designs that essentially differ in whether the day-ahead generation schedule and the subsequent balancing re-dispatch are co-optimized or not. The main features and results of the model set-ups are discussed using an illustrative four-node example and a more realistic 24-node case study.

AB - This paper analyzes the impact of production forecast errors on the expansion planning of a power system and investigates the influence of market design to facilitate the integration of renewable generation. For this purpose, we propose a programming modeling framework to determine the generation and transmission expansion plan that minimizes system-wide investment and operating costs, while ensuring a given share of renewable generation in the electricity supply. Unlike existing ones, this framework includes both a day-ahead and a balancing market so as to capture the impact of both production forecasts and the associated prediction errors. Within this framework, we consider two paradigmatic market designs that essentially differ in whether the day-ahead generation schedule and the subsequent balancing re-dispatch are co-optimized or not. The main features and results of the model set-ups are discussed using an illustrative four-node example and a more realistic 24-node case study.

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