Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption

Bekir Oray Güngör; H. Murat Ertuğrul; Ugur Soytas

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120637

Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption

Bekir Oray Güngör^*, H. Murat Ertuğrul, Ugur Soytas

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Technology, Management and Economics

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Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption by employing a unique data set of daily data covering the 2014-2020 period. Forecast performance of benchmark ARIMA models are evaluated for both before and after the outbreak. Even the best-fit model forecasts fail miserably after the Covid-19 outbreak. Adding volatility improves forecasts. Consumption volatility increases due to the outbreak. Policies targeting volatility can reduce adverse impacts of similar shocks on market participants, tax revenues, and vulnerable groups.

Original language	English
Journal	Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume	166
ISSN	0040-1625
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120637
Publication status	Published - 2021

Keywords

Gasoline consumption
ARIMA models
ARCH family models

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10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120637

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abstract = "This paper investigates the effects of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption by employing a unique data set of daily data covering the 2014-2020 period. Forecast performance of benchmark ARIMA models are evaluated for both before and after the outbreak. Even the best-fit model forecasts fail miserably after the Covid-19 outbreak. Adding volatility improves forecasts. Consumption volatility increases due to the outbreak. Policies targeting volatility can reduce adverse impacts of similar shocks on market participants, tax revenues, and vulnerable groups. ",

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AB - This paper investigates the effects of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption by employing a unique data set of daily data covering the 2014-2020 period. Forecast performance of benchmark ARIMA models are evaluated for both before and after the outbreak. Even the best-fit model forecasts fail miserably after the Covid-19 outbreak. Adding volatility improves forecasts. Consumption volatility increases due to the outbreak. Policies targeting volatility can reduce adverse impacts of similar shocks on market participants, tax revenues, and vulnerable groups.

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KW - ARCH family models

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JO - Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption

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Keywords

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