IEA Wind Task 51: Minute and Seasonal Forecasting Workshops for the Weather Driven Energy System

The energy system needs a range of forecast types for its operation in addition to the narrow wind power forecast. Therefore, the notionally largest group world-wide discussing renewable forecasts, IEA Wind Task 51 “Forecasting for the Weather Driven Energy System” is reaching out to other IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes such as the ones for PV, hydropower, system integration, hydrogen etc. The three existing Work Packages (WPs) on NWP Improvements (WP1), Power and Uncertainty Forecasting (WP2) and optimal use of Forecasting Solutions (WP3), are complemented by thirteen work streams in a matrix structure.

The three work packages span three distinct areas of challenge in forecasting for the weather driven energy system. The first area is the continuing effort to improve the representation of physical processes in weather forecast models through both new high performance initializations and tailored parameterizations. The second area is the heterogeneity of the forecasters and end users, the full understanding of the uncertainties throughout the modelling chain and the incorporation of novel data into power forecasting algorithms. A third area is representation, communication, and use of these uncertainties to industry in forms that readily support decision-making in plant operations and electricity markets.

Task 51 focuses on facilitating communication and collaborations among international research groups engaged in the improvement of the accuracy and applicability of forecast models and their utility for the stakeholders in the wind industry, in the power sector and in the energy system.

The collaboration is also structured in work streams, more targeted around a particular topic and potentially spanning several work packages [1]. Two of those work streams are aligned around forecasting horizons, the one on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) forecasting and the one on minute-scale forecasting. Both work streams had public workshops. The Seasonal Forecasting workshop was in Reading (UK) in May 2023, while the Minute Scale Forecasting workshop was on 10/11 April 2024 in Risø (DK). While the S2S workshop was done in conjunction with WMO, the Minute Scale workshop had people from several other IEA Wind Tasks (Lidars, Wind Farm Flow Control and Hybrid Power Plants) as well as representatives of IEA PVPS Task 16 for the solar side in the committee. The poster will discuss the results of both workshops.