Identifying product development crises: The potential of adaptive heuristics

C. Münzberger, Verena Stingl, Josef Oehmen, Joana Geraldi

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    Abstract

    This paper introduces adaptive heuristics as a tool to identify crises in design projects and highlights potential applications of these heuristics as decision support tool for crisis identification. Crises may emerge slowly or suddenly, and often have ambiguous signals. Thus the identification of a project crisis is often difficult. Yet, to allow fast crisis response, timely identification is critical for successful crisis management. Adaptive heuristics are judgement strategies that can strive in circumstances of limited and ambiguous information. This article presents a theoretical proposition for the application of heuristics in design sciences. To achieve this, the paper compares crises to 'business as usual', and presents sixteen indicators for emerging crises. These indicators are potential cues for adaptive heuristics. Specifically three adaptive heuristics, One-single-cue, Fast-and-Frugal-Trees, and Tallying, are well suited to support design practitioners to make robust inferences about the situation. The paper presents potential applications of these three heuristics and provides an outlook on further research on adaptive heuristics in design sciences.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publication Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Engineering Design (ICED17), Vol. 2: Design Processes | Design Organisation and Management,
    PublisherDesign Society
    Publication date2017
    Pages190-198
    Publication statusPublished - 2017
    EventICED17: 21st International Conference on Engineering Design - Vancouver, Canada
    Duration: 21 Aug 201725 Aug 2017
    http://iced17.org/

    Conference

    ConferenceICED17: 21st International Conference on Engineering Design
    CountryCanada
    CityVancouver
    Period21/08/201725/08/2017
    Internet address

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