Household-based E-commerce demand modeling for an agent-based urban transportation simulation platform

Takanori Sakai*, Yusuke Hara, Ravi Seshadri, André Romano Alho, Md Sami Hasnine, Peiyu Jing, Zhi Yuan Chua, Moshe Ben-Akiva

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review


The e-commerce market has grown rapidly in the past two decades. The need for predicting e-commerce demand and evaluating relevant policies and solutions is increasing. However, the existing simulation models for e-commerce demand are still limited and do not consider the impacts of delivery options and their attributes that shoppers face on multiple dimensions of e-commerce demand. We propose a novel framework involving disaggregate behavioral models that jointly predict e-commerce expenditure, purchase amount per transaction, delivery mode, and option choices. The proposed framework can simulate the changes in e-commerce demand and be used to evaluate the impacts of a range of policies and solutions. We specify the model parameters based on various sources of relevant information, integrate the model into an urban freight simulator, and conduct a demonstrative simulation for a prototypical North American city. The results of the analysis highlight the capability and applicability of the proposed modeling framework.

Original languageEnglish
JournalTransportation Planning and Technology
Issue number2
Pages (from-to)179-201
Number of pages23
Publication statusPublished - 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This research is supported in part by the National Research Foundation, Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore, under its CREATE programme, Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology (SMART) Future Urban Mobility (FM) IRG. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors only.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.


  • Agent-based simulation
  • E-commerce
  • Freight delivery
  • Freight demand modeling
  • Urban freight


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