Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod

Irene Mantzouni, Helle Sørensen, Robert B. O'Hara, Brian MacKenzie

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

Understanding how temperature affects cod (Gadus morhua) ecology is important for forecasting how populations will develop as climate changes in future. The effects of spawning-season temperature and habitat size on cod recruitment dynamics have been investigated across the North Atlantic. Ricker and Beverton and Holt stock–recruitment (SR) models were extended by applying hierarchical methods, mixed-effects models, and Bayesian inference to incorporate the influence of these ecosystem factors on model parameters representing cod maximum reproductive rate and carrying capacity. We identified the pattern of temperature effects on cod productivity at the species level and estimated SR model parameters with increased precision. Temperature impacts vary geographically, being positive in areas where temperatures are
Original languageEnglish
JournalICES Journal of Marine Science
Volume67
Issue number5
Pages (from-to)833-855
ISSN1054-3139
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2010

Keywords

  • cod
  • North Atlantic
  • uncertainty
  • hierarchical models
  • carrying capacity
  • temperature

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