Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention

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Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention. / Sanchez Martinez, Gerardo; Diaz, Julio; Hooyberghs, Hans; Lauwaet, Dirk; De Ridder, Koen; Linares, Cristina; Carmona, Rocio; Ortiz, Cristina; Kendrovski, Vladimir; Aerts, Raf; Van Nieuwenhuyse, An; Dunbar, Maria Bekker-Nielsen.

In: Environment International, Vol. 111, 2018, p. 135-143.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article – Annual report year: 2018Researchpeer-review

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Sanchez Martinez, G, Diaz, J, Hooyberghs, H, Lauwaet, D, De Ridder, K, Linares, C, Carmona, R, Ortiz, C, Kendrovski, V, Aerts, R, Van Nieuwenhuyse, A & Dunbar, MB-N 2018, 'Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention', Environment International, vol. 111, pp. 135-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2017.11.012

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Sanchez Martinez G, Diaz J, Hooyberghs H, Lauwaet D, De Ridder K, Linares C, Carmona R, Ortiz C, Kendrovski V, Aerts R, Van Nieuwenhuyse A, Dunbar MB-N. 2018. Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention. Environment International. 111:135-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2017.11.012

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Sanchez Martinez, Gerardo ; Diaz, Julio ; Hooyberghs, Hans ; Lauwaet, Dirk ; De Ridder, Koen ; Linares, Cristina ; Carmona, Rocio ; Ortiz, Cristina ; Kendrovski, Vladimir ; Aerts, Raf ; Van Nieuwenhuyse, An ; Dunbar, Maria Bekker-Nielsen. / Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention. In: Environment International. 2018 ; Vol. 111. pp. 135-143.

Bibtex

@article{e70aab2867c64be9bae9eed9f6e19b22,
title = "Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention",
abstract = "Background Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in several European cities. Heat-related mortality and morbidity is likely to increase under climate change scenarios without adequate prevention based on locally relevant evidence. Methods We modelled the urban climate of Antwerp for the summer season during the period 1986–2015, and projected summer daily temperatures for two periods, one in the near (2026–2045) and one in the far future (2081–2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We then analysed the relationship between temperature and mortality, as well as with hospital admissions for the period 2009–2013, and estimated the projected mortality in the near future and far future periods under changing climate and population, assuming alternatively no acclimatization and acclimatization based on a constant threshold percentile temperature. Results During the sample period 2009–2013 we observed an increase in daily mortality from a maximum daily temperature of 26 °C, or the 89th percentile of the maximum daily temperature series. The annual average heat-related mortality in this period was 13.4 persons (95{\%} CI: 3.8–23.4). No effect of heat was observed in the case of hospital admissions due to cardiorespiratory causes. Under a no acclimatization scenario, annual average heat-related mortality is multiplied by a factor of 1.7 in the near future (24.1 deaths/year CI 95{\%}: 6.78–41.94) and by a factor of 4.5 in the far future (60.38 deaths/year CI 95{\%}: 17.00–105.11). Under a heat acclimatization scenario, mortality does not increase significantly in the near or in the far future. Conclusion These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate, and the calibration of existing prevention activities in light of locally relevant evidence.",
author = "{Sanchez Martinez}, Gerardo and Julio Diaz and Hans Hooyberghs and Dirk Lauwaet and {De Ridder}, Koen and Cristina Linares and Rocio Carmona and Cristina Ortiz and Vladimir Kendrovski and Raf Aerts and {Van Nieuwenhuyse}, An and Dunbar, {Maria Bekker-Nielsen}",
year = "2018",
doi = "10.1016/j.envint.2017.11.012",
language = "English",
volume = "111",
pages = "135--143",
journal = "Environment International",
issn = "0160-4120",
publisher = "Pergamon Press",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention

AU - Sanchez Martinez, Gerardo

AU - Diaz, Julio

AU - Hooyberghs, Hans

AU - Lauwaet, Dirk

AU - De Ridder, Koen

AU - Linares, Cristina

AU - Carmona, Rocio

AU - Ortiz, Cristina

AU - Kendrovski, Vladimir

AU - Aerts, Raf

AU - Van Nieuwenhuyse, An

AU - Dunbar, Maria Bekker-Nielsen

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - Background Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in several European cities. Heat-related mortality and morbidity is likely to increase under climate change scenarios without adequate prevention based on locally relevant evidence. Methods We modelled the urban climate of Antwerp for the summer season during the period 1986–2015, and projected summer daily temperatures for two periods, one in the near (2026–2045) and one in the far future (2081–2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We then analysed the relationship between temperature and mortality, as well as with hospital admissions for the period 2009–2013, and estimated the projected mortality in the near future and far future periods under changing climate and population, assuming alternatively no acclimatization and acclimatization based on a constant threshold percentile temperature. Results During the sample period 2009–2013 we observed an increase in daily mortality from a maximum daily temperature of 26 °C, or the 89th percentile of the maximum daily temperature series. The annual average heat-related mortality in this period was 13.4 persons (95% CI: 3.8–23.4). No effect of heat was observed in the case of hospital admissions due to cardiorespiratory causes. Under a no acclimatization scenario, annual average heat-related mortality is multiplied by a factor of 1.7 in the near future (24.1 deaths/year CI 95%: 6.78–41.94) and by a factor of 4.5 in the far future (60.38 deaths/year CI 95%: 17.00–105.11). Under a heat acclimatization scenario, mortality does not increase significantly in the near or in the far future. Conclusion These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate, and the calibration of existing prevention activities in light of locally relevant evidence.

AB - Background Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in several European cities. Heat-related mortality and morbidity is likely to increase under climate change scenarios without adequate prevention based on locally relevant evidence. Methods We modelled the urban climate of Antwerp for the summer season during the period 1986–2015, and projected summer daily temperatures for two periods, one in the near (2026–2045) and one in the far future (2081–2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We then analysed the relationship between temperature and mortality, as well as with hospital admissions for the period 2009–2013, and estimated the projected mortality in the near future and far future periods under changing climate and population, assuming alternatively no acclimatization and acclimatization based on a constant threshold percentile temperature. Results During the sample period 2009–2013 we observed an increase in daily mortality from a maximum daily temperature of 26 °C, or the 89th percentile of the maximum daily temperature series. The annual average heat-related mortality in this period was 13.4 persons (95% CI: 3.8–23.4). No effect of heat was observed in the case of hospital admissions due to cardiorespiratory causes. Under a no acclimatization scenario, annual average heat-related mortality is multiplied by a factor of 1.7 in the near future (24.1 deaths/year CI 95%: 6.78–41.94) and by a factor of 4.5 in the far future (60.38 deaths/year CI 95%: 17.00–105.11). Under a heat acclimatization scenario, mortality does not increase significantly in the near or in the far future. Conclusion These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate, and the calibration of existing prevention activities in light of locally relevant evidence.

U2 - 10.1016/j.envint.2017.11.012

DO - 10.1016/j.envint.2017.11.012

M3 - Journal article

VL - 111

SP - 135

EP - 143

JO - Environment International

JF - Environment International

SN - 0160-4120

ER -