Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention

Gerardo Sanchez Martinez*, Julio Diaz, Hans Hooyberghs, Dirk Lauwaet, Koen De Ridder, Cristina Linares, Rocio Carmona, Cristina Ortiz, Vladimir Kendrovski, Raf Aerts, An Van Nieuwenhuyse, Maria Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar

*Corresponding author for this work

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    Abstract

    Background Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in several European cities. Heat-related mortality and morbidity is likely to increase under climate change scenarios without adequate prevention based on locally relevant evidence. Methods We modelled the urban climate of Antwerp for the summer season during the period 1986–2015, and projected summer daily temperatures for two periods, one in the near (2026–2045) and one in the far future (2081–2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We then analysed the relationship between temperature and mortality, as well as with hospital admissions for the period 2009–2013, and estimated the projected mortality in the near future and far future periods under changing climate and population, assuming alternatively no acclimatization and acclimatization based on a constant threshold percentile temperature. Results During the sample period 2009–2013 we observed an increase in daily mortality from a maximum daily temperature of 26 °C, or the 89th percentile of the maximum daily temperature series. The annual average heat-related mortality in this period was 13.4 persons (95% CI: 3.8–23.4). No effect of heat was observed in the case of hospital admissions due to cardiorespiratory causes. Under a no acclimatization scenario, annual average heat-related mortality is multiplied by a factor of 1.7 in the near future (24.1 deaths/year CI 95%: 6.78–41.94) and by a factor of 4.5 in the far future (60.38 deaths/year CI 95%: 17.00–105.11). Under a heat acclimatization scenario, mortality does not increase significantly in the near or in the far future. Conclusion These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate, and the calibration of existing prevention activities in light of locally relevant evidence.
    Original languageEnglish
    JournalEnvironment International
    Volume111
    Pages (from-to)135-143
    ISSN0160-4120
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2018

    Cite this

    Sanchez Martinez, Gerardo ; Diaz, Julio ; Hooyberghs, Hans ; Lauwaet, Dirk ; De Ridder, Koen ; Linares, Cristina ; Carmona, Rocio ; Ortiz, Cristina ; Kendrovski, Vladimir ; Aerts, Raf ; Van Nieuwenhuyse, An ; Dunbar, Maria Bekker-Nielsen. / Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention. In: Environment International. 2018 ; Vol. 111. pp. 135-143.
    @article{e70aab2867c64be9bae9eed9f6e19b22,
    title = "Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention",
    abstract = "Background Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in several European cities. Heat-related mortality and morbidity is likely to increase under climate change scenarios without adequate prevention based on locally relevant evidence. Methods We modelled the urban climate of Antwerp for the summer season during the period 1986–2015, and projected summer daily temperatures for two periods, one in the near (2026–2045) and one in the far future (2081–2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We then analysed the relationship between temperature and mortality, as well as with hospital admissions for the period 2009–2013, and estimated the projected mortality in the near future and far future periods under changing climate and population, assuming alternatively no acclimatization and acclimatization based on a constant threshold percentile temperature. Results During the sample period 2009–2013 we observed an increase in daily mortality from a maximum daily temperature of 26 °C, or the 89th percentile of the maximum daily temperature series. The annual average heat-related mortality in this period was 13.4 persons (95{\%} CI: 3.8–23.4). No effect of heat was observed in the case of hospital admissions due to cardiorespiratory causes. Under a no acclimatization scenario, annual average heat-related mortality is multiplied by a factor of 1.7 in the near future (24.1 deaths/year CI 95{\%}: 6.78–41.94) and by a factor of 4.5 in the far future (60.38 deaths/year CI 95{\%}: 17.00–105.11). Under a heat acclimatization scenario, mortality does not increase significantly in the near or in the far future. Conclusion These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate, and the calibration of existing prevention activities in light of locally relevant evidence.",
    author = "{Sanchez Martinez}, Gerardo and Julio Diaz and Hans Hooyberghs and Dirk Lauwaet and {De Ridder}, Koen and Cristina Linares and Rocio Carmona and Cristina Ortiz and Vladimir Kendrovski and Raf Aerts and {Van Nieuwenhuyse}, An and Dunbar, {Maria Bekker-Nielsen}",
    year = "2018",
    doi = "10.1016/j.envint.2017.11.012",
    language = "English",
    volume = "111",
    pages = "135--143",
    journal = "Environment International",
    issn = "0160-4120",
    publisher = "Pergamon Press",

    }

    Sanchez Martinez, G, Diaz, J, Hooyberghs, H, Lauwaet, D, De Ridder, K, Linares, C, Carmona, R, Ortiz, C, Kendrovski, V, Aerts, R, Van Nieuwenhuyse, A & Dunbar, MB-N 2018, 'Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention', Environment International, vol. 111, pp. 135-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2017.11.012

    Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention. / Sanchez Martinez, Gerardo; Diaz, Julio; Hooyberghs, Hans; Lauwaet, Dirk; De Ridder, Koen; Linares, Cristina; Carmona, Rocio; Ortiz, Cristina; Kendrovski, Vladimir; Aerts, Raf; Van Nieuwenhuyse, An; Dunbar, Maria Bekker-Nielsen.

    In: Environment International, Vol. 111, 2018, p. 135-143.

    Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention

    AU - Sanchez Martinez, Gerardo

    AU - Diaz, Julio

    AU - Hooyberghs, Hans

    AU - Lauwaet, Dirk

    AU - De Ridder, Koen

    AU - Linares, Cristina

    AU - Carmona, Rocio

    AU - Ortiz, Cristina

    AU - Kendrovski, Vladimir

    AU - Aerts, Raf

    AU - Van Nieuwenhuyse, An

    AU - Dunbar, Maria Bekker-Nielsen

    PY - 2018

    Y1 - 2018

    N2 - Background Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in several European cities. Heat-related mortality and morbidity is likely to increase under climate change scenarios without adequate prevention based on locally relevant evidence. Methods We modelled the urban climate of Antwerp for the summer season during the period 1986–2015, and projected summer daily temperatures for two periods, one in the near (2026–2045) and one in the far future (2081–2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We then analysed the relationship between temperature and mortality, as well as with hospital admissions for the period 2009–2013, and estimated the projected mortality in the near future and far future periods under changing climate and population, assuming alternatively no acclimatization and acclimatization based on a constant threshold percentile temperature. Results During the sample period 2009–2013 we observed an increase in daily mortality from a maximum daily temperature of 26 °C, or the 89th percentile of the maximum daily temperature series. The annual average heat-related mortality in this period was 13.4 persons (95% CI: 3.8–23.4). No effect of heat was observed in the case of hospital admissions due to cardiorespiratory causes. Under a no acclimatization scenario, annual average heat-related mortality is multiplied by a factor of 1.7 in the near future (24.1 deaths/year CI 95%: 6.78–41.94) and by a factor of 4.5 in the far future (60.38 deaths/year CI 95%: 17.00–105.11). Under a heat acclimatization scenario, mortality does not increase significantly in the near or in the far future. Conclusion These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate, and the calibration of existing prevention activities in light of locally relevant evidence.

    AB - Background Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in several European cities. Heat-related mortality and morbidity is likely to increase under climate change scenarios without adequate prevention based on locally relevant evidence. Methods We modelled the urban climate of Antwerp for the summer season during the period 1986–2015, and projected summer daily temperatures for two periods, one in the near (2026–2045) and one in the far future (2081–2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We then analysed the relationship between temperature and mortality, as well as with hospital admissions for the period 2009–2013, and estimated the projected mortality in the near future and far future periods under changing climate and population, assuming alternatively no acclimatization and acclimatization based on a constant threshold percentile temperature. Results During the sample period 2009–2013 we observed an increase in daily mortality from a maximum daily temperature of 26 °C, or the 89th percentile of the maximum daily temperature series. The annual average heat-related mortality in this period was 13.4 persons (95% CI: 3.8–23.4). No effect of heat was observed in the case of hospital admissions due to cardiorespiratory causes. Under a no acclimatization scenario, annual average heat-related mortality is multiplied by a factor of 1.7 in the near future (24.1 deaths/year CI 95%: 6.78–41.94) and by a factor of 4.5 in the far future (60.38 deaths/year CI 95%: 17.00–105.11). Under a heat acclimatization scenario, mortality does not increase significantly in the near or in the far future. Conclusion These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate, and the calibration of existing prevention activities in light of locally relevant evidence.

    U2 - 10.1016/j.envint.2017.11.012

    DO - 10.1016/j.envint.2017.11.012

    M3 - Journal article

    C2 - 29207285

    VL - 111

    SP - 135

    EP - 143

    JO - Environment International

    JF - Environment International

    SN - 0160-4120

    ER -